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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (17298)	9/25/2000 2:21:50 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 29986

Kyros, that's how I see it. But I don't believe that in a bankruptcy auction Globalstar would go for $1 billion. This system is too good, with too much life to go for such a measly price. Globalstar bankruptcy would be like NextWave's. People thought NextWave had overbid for spectrum in April 1996 [I didn't - at the time I thought they had got C-Block at a cheap price]. Message 58347 When NextWave was dithering over raising the funds to pay for the spectrum, it seemed to me like a 'strategic' bankruptcy. Spectrum prices were not showing up too well in a subsequent auction. Pocket had packed it in. Bankruptcy looked like a way to get bargain-priced spectrum. I said at the time that I would not be surprised if, when they came to rebid for the spectrum, they had to pay MORE than what they originally bid. So it has turned out to be. The same situation applies here. Globalstar will NOT go to Vodafone for a song in the event of bankruptcy. In case Vodafone or other service providers have such a moronic idea as driving G! to bankruptcy with a view to picking it up for a song, they [meaning Chris Gent] had better think again. [I don't believe we need such an absurd conspiracy theory to explain the poor marketing by service providers - incompetence and greed is enough]. Vodafone would be up against all sorts of bidders who would figure out that Globalstar is a worldwide winner. Bids might zoom into the 10s of $$ billions. If Vodafone lost, they would also lose their exclusivity agreements, which would NOT be so smart. They would then be invited to be a distributor for the new company provided they agreed to a dramatically lower retail price. Like 40c a minute retail! I don't think you are right that the 9,600 bps can be cut for voice. QUALCOMM has put a lot of effort into PureVoice and speech encoding and I doubt that they would want to leave any more bits out. The terrestrial networks at 13 kbps were excellent but the lower rates were unacceptable. It seems that the service providers are not prepared to cut their prices, so if Globalstar cuts their wholesale prices, the service providers seem not to have the good sense to cut their retail prices. [Including the Globalstar-controlled service providers in Russia and Mexico]. Mqurice

To: KyrosL who wrote (17298)	9/25/2000 5:53:01 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 29986

deleted...neom... one of those silly duplicates when being sloppy on editing... neom = no "expectation of money" in this instance.

To: KyrosL who wrote (17298)	9/30/2000 7:00:29 AM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29986

GSTRF share price In a previous post I laid out four G* earning scenarios and the corresponding short/medium term share price: Message 14446818 Three of the scenarios represent different levels of G* success, the fourth G* bankruptcy. Here is a summary: 1. G* sells all its minutes at current wholesale price of 47 cents/min. Stock price $333 2. G* sells its minutes at 24 cents/min. Stock at $149 3. G* sells its minutes at 12 cents/min. Stock at $55. 4. G* goes bankrupt. Stock at $0. We can use these scenarios to figure out the GSTRF share price. To do this we need to assign a probability of success (S) and spread it among the three success scenarios. The probability of bankruptcy will be (1 - S). To simplify things, we assume that the probability of success is distributed equally among the three success scenarios. Based on these assumptions: GSTRF share price = 333S/3 + 149S/3 + 55S/3 Plugging the current GSTRF price of around $9 in the above formula and solving for S, we see that the market believes that S= 93/(333+149+55)=0.05 or 5% So, the current GSTRF share price reflects a belief that the probability of G* bankruptcy where shareholders get nothing is 95%. You can plug your own success probability in the above formula to figure out what your expectation of GSTRF price is. For example, if you believe that the probability of G* success is 0.40 (or 40%), the expected short/medium term GSTRF price is $72. Kyros