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Non-Tech : Conseco Insurance (CNO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (3119)	9/27/2000 2:00:33 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4155

<font color=green> Sept 27,2000, CNC NEWS AND COMMENTARY Great News past 3 days: First we got the restoration/restructuring plan.Wendt did his magic!!!!! Nobody thought he could do it. He did it!! Shorts are minced meat!! biz.yahoo.com zulian and NJ-Gator in RB explain it for the mathematically challenged and the morons investing in CNC: zulian $$$: ragingbull.altavista.com NJ-Gator $$$$ ragingbull.altavista.com S&P proceeded to remove CNC from Watch and Affirms Conseco Ratings NEW YORK, Sept. 26 /PRNewswire/ -- Standard & Poor's today removed from CreditWatch and affirmed its ratings on Conseco Inc. and related entities (see list). The outlook is stable. Message 14457825 Irwin Jacobs update: “ Great Victory “. irwinljacobs.com zulian $$$ in RB wrote: ragingbull.altavista.com With his aggressive nature IMHO we're guaranteed to see more sales fast and soon. One, two, three, pop...pop...pop... IMHO, What to expect near term: Sales popping quickly bringing in cash, loans being paid off on schedule and earnings increasing as the positive energy expands to all areas of Conseco. As this energy spreads analysts and investors WILL catch this NEW feeling and energy bringing strong dollars to the table. The credit rating will pop up and so will the stock price. The longs are strained but the smart shorts are beginning to slowly seeing the light even though the price hasn't reflected it yet. I don't think they're nervous "yet" but they're concerned, they're watching. They know they could be sitting on a powder keg ready to blow. At the sure sign of movement upwards the short squeeze will begin, and IMHO mark my words it will happen. I believe Irwin L. Jacobs and Gary Wendt will make sure of it. IMHO, don't think tonights post of news was just another post, it WAS strategic, end of comment - WATCH what follows next! IMHO, Conseco will be the greatest story ever told and I believe it will happen fast NOT slow, and I believe Gary Wendt smells blood and will drive it fast. The deals, just in the last couple of days. A portent of how Wendt helped propel GE from 50 bill to 500 bill cap in 15 years ( and it wasn’t the refrigerators or turbines that did it ): 26 Sep 2000,, Reuters Conseco unit to sell $668 mln manufactured home ABS ragingbull.altavista.com 25 Sep 2000, , Reuters Textron unit sells $471 million aircraft loan ABS ragingbull.altavista.com So what is CNC fair value now? ReSwat answers that: messages.yahoo.com What is the fair value for Conseco right now? Who knows, but here's some thoughts. According to the Market Watch report, the industry average P/E is 21. According to Irwin Jacob's, Conseco is expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of $1.50 per share for 2001. Multiply that out and you get $31.5 at the end of 2001, if they hit their earnings. Now, how do you discount that to today? Obviously, you have the time discount, let's say 10%. Also, there is still some uncertainty and lingering doubts about the company. Let's discount it by another 40%, for a total of 50% discount. So, we're at a fair price of around $17. On the plus side, you have the fact the Gary Wendt is probably being conservative in his estimates. (A.M. Best said that he was conservative in his estimate of the cash to be generated from asset sales.) But even if you ignore Gary Wendt's conservatism, you still get something over $15 per share. However, the big intangible here is the short sellers. That doesn't change the fundamental value of the company, but it does increase the likelihood of a large spike in price before it settles down to a more fair value. Since there is about 25% of the shares shorted, I'll add 25% for that intangible as a spike, to make me believe the CNC will spike up close to $20 per share some time soon. ==================================== Of couse shorts are working overtime to get this stock down: Cahodes is trying.Here’s dunnonothin telling you about it: messages.yahoo.com The CNC shorts are fight ing the battle everyday here. we are fighting in the trenches and in the beaches. In message boards, in The NYTimes and Wall St. Jour ( Jacobs ). In the hills and valleys of this fair land. CNC longs will win and crush the serpent’s SHORT head with their heel, cheers and good luck to all CNC longs TA aka ta_56