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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lynn who wrote (40088)	9/25/2000 11:35:41 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Hi all, are you ready for my 1 year outlook (my gaze into the crystal ball)? Well ready or not, here it is. It's been a choppy past 6 mos for Cisco alright, but I think we are nearing the end. Towards the end of 1999, I said the year 2000 was going to be Nortel's year. Now I am saying that 2001 will be Cisco's year. What I mean by this is that Cisco will start showing some real strength in the optical market with tremendous momentum and fast-paced growth. In addition, they will have heady growth in the overall Service Provider market. This will propel the company to $30B in 12-mo trailing revs by 7/2001 from the $18.9B we saw for FY'00. Based on this growth, my crystal ball says we'll start seeing some upward momentum on the stock price around November. Then it will reach $80-85 by Feb-March timeframe and $90-95 by August-Sept. So that would be a 50% 1-year return from here. The above is based on a 55-60% FY'01 growth rate in revs and EPS, and the maintenance of a 110 PE. If the growth rate slowed to 50% instead and the PE fell to 100, then we'd probably see a stock price of closer to $80 by FYE'01. That's still a 33% 1-year return. So no matter how you look at it, this stock is going to perform well over the next year (at least at what us old timers know is a good return). Nortel, of course, should still continue to dominate the optical market and make significant strides in the metro and wireless markets, once again proving their dominance. However, by the end of calendar 2001, I think Roth won't be so dismissive wrt to Cisco in the optical market, as it's possible Cisco will be near a $4B run rate in that segment, up from the $1.5B runrate it's at now. Disclosure: All of the above is based on my own research and forecasts based on assumptions I have made and may not materialize. This post is in no way intended to influence anyone's decision. You should do your own research and analysis before you make any decision to invest in a company.