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To: sam_o who wrote (21307)9/25/2000 12:23:24 PM
From: Archie Meeties  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
explorers and producers. Normally at this time in the cycle you'd be moving out of these and into the OSX laggards (seismic, fabs, etc.) as the e&p's margins begin to shrink and drilling rates ramp. The capex of the majors has been a bit slow to take off, however, so the independents have been exploring under the ideal circumstances - moderate drilling rates and soaring commodity prices.

They reason to begin to buy them today is that they are selling off b/c bubba is releasing from the spr. In fact, the opposite is the appropriate move - Clinton's actions confirm a bullish trend for energy. It's becoming clear that he can not persuade OPEC to open the valves (perhaps they probably can't pump anymore anyways), and that they world needs more oil. OK, I'll conceed that it was also well timed to prop up the bond market and further Gore's campaign - but regardless, oil inventories sit a 24 year lows. Under Gore spr release will become standard fare. After 2, perhaps 3 releases the market will begin to discount spr release as temporizing measures which are ineffective at addressing the problem - which is that oil is way too cheap. By this time the majors will begin exploring like there's no tomorrow (b/c that's the way it will seem). And somewhere in there gold goes to the f*ckin moon, BTW. -g-