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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tejek who wrote (124733)	9/25/2000 1:56:40 PM
From: chic_hearne	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1574605

RE: P4 Ted, The biggest problem for Intel and the Pentium 4 launch does not even come from Intel itself, but from the Dramurai. As you know, there will not be a non-Rambus chipset for P4 until late next year at the earliest. This means for the next year the P4 depends on DRDRAM supplies far more than anything else, which Intel cannot control. The Dramurai have chosen to not ramp DRDRAM. This makes the all discussion of "volume" P4 a moot point until there is a non-Rambus chipset. I'd say there is a .1% chance of seeing volume P4 anytime in the next 9 months. By volume, I mean anything over 5% of chips sold. There simply won't be enough DRDRAM to support anymore than a few percent of the market. chic

To: tejek who wrote (124733)	9/25/2000 11:14:08 PM
From: hmaly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1574605

Ted Re..<<<That Crazy Doug has tried to a get discussion going on the mod thread wrt the P4.....with the premise that Intel may pull off a good launch of the P4 in November and that the chip will prove to be an exciting addition to the PC world. Assuming the above premise then, what will be the P4's impact in general.......of course, specifically on AMD. <<<< The p4 may very well be a good chip, but it will almost certainly have an achiles heel until a new chipset without Rambus comes out. Another thing to consider is that P4 best benchmarks take advantage of P4 400 mhz bus. Without that advantage, it could very well be a draw going against mustang. So the way I see it, P4 is limited in volume until DDR or sdram chipset appears, and when DDR is used, P4 could very well be slower on P4 best benchmarks because of slower bus. I doubt that Willy will have a great effect on AMD as long as AMD executes, because AMD will still own medium (T-bird) and lo end (Duron). When the Hammer comes out, I sincerely believe Hammer will hold IPC lead, even if P4 will have mhz lead,(primarilly because multiple cores on a chip seem to be the latest trend.) so for the forseeable future (1-3 yrs.)Amd should be just fine. I am not a tech guy, so I will leave yields up to others, but because the P4 is such a big chip, even if Intel doubles yields, the volume would be the same; so I really don't see Willy solving that problem. Besides, rightly or wrongly, I am a firm believer that if a company executes well, makes wise decisions on which products to produce, outsource etc, the profits will take care of themselves.