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To: isopatch who wrote (74582)	9/25/2000 4:42:43 PM
From: Roebear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

isopatch, Well, FWIW, here is the weather update for winter 00-01, targeted for the NE and Mid Atlantic states. A high probability of a colder than normal winter. For snow lovers out there, I have no firm precipitation amounts or for that matter the type (snow/freezing rain/rain) but I would tend to frozen precip to match the temperature expectations. This would conclude the OFFICIAL ROEBEAR WINTER FORECAST so far. As to what is in the works, I would expect at least one major winter storm, maybe more. When I say major I am not talking about when the local weather anchor gets excited because the forecast is for six inches of snow. I mean one that gets listed in storm history. Not sure if we will see a winter hurricane type at this point such as some called the 93 storm (although it was a trifle weak, shall we say borderline)or a Blizzard of 96, or 83. At this point I would rather not say, though I would tend to look at 83 as a possible model with 93 being next. I don't believe we'll have a bruiser of a winter like JFM 96, but once again I'm not ruling it out. That will depend on the NAO, without a good NAO I am looking at mainly cold weather. What I am confident of so far is in the first paragraph. Why do I think so? A little less than half is based on natural observations and a little less than half is based on more conventional climatology such as this being a weak La Nina year after a strong one, the La Nina has gone neutral so we are between La Nina/El Nino events and that results in 2 out of 3 cold winters in the NE. Also the SST temp patterns and a definite shift of weather patterns from the last two late summers/early autumns. The rest of my method goes to how the paint flows in my hex sign shop, ggg. Sure hope everyone took advantage of all those nice warm coats for sale at the end of the season last year. I got mine for 70% off last March. Reminder, this forecast does not necessarily pertain to other regions. If it spills over to other regions they would most likely be the Ohio valley and Mid West. Disclaimer: This is a forecast done by a hobbyist and should not be used for any other reason than entertainment. Roebear will not be responsible for any losses or personal or corporate injuries of any type whatsoever, even though Roebear thinks he is right a lot about this stuff (LOL). OTOH, VBG, were you to make a killing using this forecast and have an inkling for your very own weather prophet (well compensated of course), proposals will be considered, and I warn ahead of time, if I go pro I won't be cheap! gggg, Roebear

To: isopatch who wrote (74582)	9/25/2000 4:48:20 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Really went & dun it this time! Yep, bot the "booby PRZ", lol. A some point even that POS get's cheap enough to buy. But laughing at myself because as soon as the confirm came back, it hit me. AHHHHH, #!&@!<!*, I'm too early. Oh well, least it takes the cost basis down on the rest of what's thank the Lord only now even a moderate size position. Com'on Big Bull, JimP, Roebear "tell me it ain't so". That maybe it wasn't that big a bullet hole I just put in my foot<g>. Hey. Love writing a post like this after my political soap box gets me taking myself and especially the rest of the world too seriously. Dante had it right, it's all just a "Divine Comedy". Cheers Isopatch