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Biotech / Medical : ONXX -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mama Bear who wrote (683)	9/25/2000 10:08:42 PM
From: tom pope	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 810

Barb, you're a LOT smarter than that. Of course I am. Aggregate selling is what's significant, not selling by one individual. Briefly, I do not see any significant bailing out by any significant number of insiders. If you can show me this kind of selling I'll be with you on the short side at once.

To: Mama Bear who wrote (683)	9/25/2000 11:00:20 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 810

Spree? It's (1) one individual, a senior executive who has been an employee for four years, (2) a lousy $350K worth of sales by the V.P. Legal (Counsel), and (3) the "IVP Director" taking a few shares (35K) off the table (not exceptional behavior for a VC). Not only is this not a "spree", it's not even noteworthy. A group of friends and I review insider sales in biotech every week, and ONXX has barely made our radar. Maybe Mary Anne Rafferty needs money. Maybe she's been around, and wants to take biobucks while they're available. Maybe she's retiring and building a dream home in Switzerland. I have no opinion of ONXX as an investment. I would say that shorts, at this time, are dangerously exposed. At a similar point in the last rally, a secondary came to be regarded as a route to future leverage, and several issues actually rallied into the dilution. There's one other thing to consider..... the "2000 rally" is unlike anything that biotech has ever seen. Some of the ONXX options can be accelerated -- they can be exercised before vesting. If I were participating in a plan like that, I'd be exercising everything in sight, selling them. I'd be doing that regardless of the company's potential, if I had additional options coming as a part of compensation. Ms. Rafferty was granted 60K in options for 1999, 20K of which are exercisable 3/09 at $6, and 40K of which are exercisable 11/09 at $9. She's not hurting for future opportunities, and that's just 1999. So, maybe she's just careful and smart? Since you're pointing at the insider sales.... the option year which allowed for the accelerated vesting was 1996. What is the exercise price for those options? Are they likely to be those, post-August, listed at Yahoo and on which you are fixated? This is a pretty silly short right now, IMO, very exposed to sudden and significant upside potential. May work, and hope that everyone playing this game manages a profit.