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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (31047)	9/26/2000 9:22:32 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42787

SEPT 26 INDEX UPDATE ------------------------- Short-term technical readings: DOW - midrange, DOJI SPX - midrange OEX - lower midrange NAZ - midrange, imperfect DARK CLOUD COVER NDX - midrange, DARK CLOUD COVER(FRI was not a Hammer, but a WHITE DAY) VIX - midrange, 24.55 CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO - .51 In light of last FRIDAYs strength in the market, there was no follow-thru and the market actually closed negative yesterday which is not a good sign. A good reliable candlestic BEARISH REVERSAL pattern is the "DARK CLOUD COVER". Both the NAZ and NDX had "DARK CLOUD COVER". The one on the NAZ was not perfect since the closing price of the 2nd DAY(black day) should have been a little lower. As for the NDX it was a perfect "DARK CLOUD COVER", keeping in mind that many charts had DAY 1 as a HAMMER, where it should have been a LONG WHITE DAY, as previously mentioned on the SI thread. If the NAZ and NDX do not sell off immediately the upper level of yesterdays body(NAZ @ 3853, NDX @ 3753) should limit a rally and as long as those levels are intact the DARK CLOUD COVER pattern is still valid. It just may take a few days. Talking about candlestics, recently various major indices has had negative patterns develop such as the "3 BLACK CROWs", "TASUKI" effect, "ON NECK BEARISH", and now the "DARK CLOUD COVER". Per the candlestics this interim just looks negative. Per my short-term technicals the overall market is basicly in the midrange, which I call the FLIP-of-the-COIN TERRITORY. Although things look quite negative, I would not be surprised to see some ZIG-ZAGGING/ minor SECTOR ROTATION/ flatness, whether intraday or several days, before selling intensifies. Concerning some of the sentiment indicators, the VIX is still below 25. I feel that an important bottom will not be set until the VIX is closer/above 30. That doesnt mean a rally cannot start, just that if there is a rally, such just postpones an important bottom. The CBOE PUT:CALL RATIO closed at .51 which is on the bearish side of neutral so it appears that complacency is still around. With yesterdays lack of follow-thru of FRI's strong rally, it appears per the PUT:CALL ratio that few were worried. Just recapping various support lines. Please note that I eyeballed most of the lines and with the OCT 1998 trendline, I used the weekly charts not the daily. Note that there is a question as to the OCT 1998 trendline on the NAZ: DOW - closed at 10808 ------------------------------------------------- 10790 - trendline from MAR lows, already pierced 10600 - main trendline from OCT 1998 10465 - horizontal support 10336-10200 - various horizontal supports 9735 - MAR lows SPX - closed at 1439 ----------------------------------------------------- 1460 - lower trendline of big BEARISH WEDGE, already broken to downside 1450 - main trendline from OCT 1998, back below it again 1415 - horizontal support 1375-1360 - various horizontal supports 1340 - APRIL's lows NAZ - closed at 3741 ---------------------------------------------- 3830 - lower trendline of big BEARISH WEDGE 3725-3600? - main trendline from OCT 1998 3500 - horizontal support 3250 - horizontal support 3205 - MAY LOWs NDX - closed at 3622 ------------------------------------------- 3600 - lower trendline of big BEARISH WEDGE 3500 - main trendline form OCT 1998 3340 - horizontal support 3110 - horizontal support 2897 - MAY LOWs