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To: AllansAlias who wrote (21873)	9/26/2000 3:52:18 PM
From: XBrit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Allan, (speaking just for myself of course) please keep posting all you want. Your messages are always interesting. I can understand if some people aren't interested in the daytrading timeframe, but if so they can and should put you on ignore. It's very easy to do.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (21873)	9/26/2000 3:56:04 PM
From: Oblomov	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Allan, I always find your comments insightful. And I only position trade. Your perspective is interesting, and you are obviously good at what you do.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (21873)	9/26/2000 5:15:50 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

NAZ wave count (drrrrum rrroll -g-). note, it really isn't different from what i presented before, only it seems to me we are pretty much in confirmation mode re. the bearish count. firstly, the recent decline's structure on the smaller time frames looked impulsive to my untrained eye (i.e. in the 10- and 60- min. charts which i am watching). therefore, my preferred count for NDX and COMP from the March high looks as follows: the decline from the March high to the May low was a textbook five waver , the third wave of which ended on CPI Friday in April (i believe it was April 14), and the fifth wave of which ended at the May low. this was either a wave 1 or a wave A, depending on whether you think the bull market since the NAZ inception in the '70's has ended or not (arguments supporting both viewpoints can be found,as usual). however, that's immaterial to the medium term view, because whether we are now in a wave 3 or C down, down is down. anyway, the action from the May low to the early Sept. high is therefore a corrective wave 2 of the form a-b-c, as in the case of the semis here (note, i don't agree with the a-b-c-d-e view here...what he terms (b) here looks to me like 5 of 1..but the conclusion is the same. i simply count his c-d-e as a-b-c): csf.colorado.edu considering all this, the decline from the most recent high must be either 1 of C, or 1 of 3. it seems to be nearly complete. what makes it suspiciously look like a third wave of sorts is the broad participation...the Dow/SPX/OEX are getting kicked in the teeth too after all. the confusion regarding Bensimon's alternate bullish count (which isn't entirely off the table yet, but close to getting there) stems imo from the different wave positions of several NAZ sub sectors. while the above mentioned semis were tracing out a corrective structure, the BTK and NWX clearly were engaged in a fifth wave finale. in the case of the NWX it looks complete, and in the BTK nearly so. once these two join in the decline, all doubts about the character of this market should be resolved. a break of the late July lows confirmed by both NDX and COMP would imo amount to final confirmation - in that case, Bensimon's bullish count would be finally disproven imo as he assumes the July low to be the beginning of wave 3 of 5 up. for a number three up wave it would be mighty strange to make a low below its supposed origin. my target for this larger 3 or C down would be somewhere slightly below the congestion zone from which the blow-off stage began, i.e. NDX 2,200-2,300. this is a completely 'unscientific' observation, gleaned from comparable bear markets of the past, e.g. the Nikkei in 1990. note, the Fed is trying its best to facilitate massive behind the scenes intervention in this market by printing money at breathtaking speed. i repeat, if the cycles should prove too strong even for this re-liquefication attempt, i expect to see overt government intervention in the stock market in late Oct./Nov. near the cycle lows in the name of "national security" and averting "systemic risk", i.e. a bail-out of the big brokers,banks , hedge funds with tax payers money.