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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tekboy who wrote (32369)	9/26/2000 5:57:29 PM
From: sditto	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

<<but one should certainly note Paul Krugman's rather strong dissenting opinion...>> It's worth noting Krugman does not dissent on the existence of network effects but just to accounts crediting Arthur with their discovery. Krugman also very capably points out that not all networks are created equal (some networks can actually lead to decreasing returns) and that some outcomes attributed to network effects can more precisely be attributed to bad pricing and marketing decisions. Krugman is an amazingly prolific writer - two good places to start: Networks and Increasing Returns at web.mit.edu Soft Microeconomics - The Squishy Case Against You-Know-Who at web.mit.edu

To: tekboy who wrote (32369)	9/26/2000 5:58:20 PM
From: johndelvecchio	Respond to of 54805

Hi Tekboy, Yeah, I've seen Krugman's argument. But, I personally believe that Arthur created the concept. Krugman seems more like a career professor that wants to be remembered for prestigious ideas. Arthur, quite frankly, never gave a damn about that stuff. Best, John Del Vecchio Investment Research Fool The Motley Fool fool.com

To: tekboy who wrote (32369)	9/26/2000 6:06:32 PM
From: willkm3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

OT: Great read regarding oil & OPEC... glja.com The implications of continued high crude oil prices for non-OPEC production, we believe, will ultimately mean dramatic growth in non-OPEC productive capacity. Petroleum Economics Limited (PEL), in a recent study, is forecasting non-OPEC supply to increase by almost 6.0 million barrels per day by 2005. When combined with PEL’s global demand forecast, non-OPEC supply would account for over two-thirds of demand growth, leaving OPEC members to meet just one-third of global demand. If the non-OPEC supply forecast is reasonable, the implication for OPEC’s market share is very serious. It seems unlikely that OPEC would allow crude oil prices to remain high, thereby jeopardizing their global crude oil market share position. willkm3@letsmakeSaudiArabiathe51ststate.com

To: tekboy who wrote (32369)	9/27/2000 10:11:25 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

tekboy: Beautiful. But now to the meat. Since you are the thread "bad boy" by choice, I am writing you as the bad boy (hard to believe at my age but so be it) by default - i.e. silence - despite (or perhaps because of my suggesting Qualcomm). On timing and the One Gorilla / One King game which has at least to the best of my memory, which I admit is faulty due to advanced age, has never once had any reply or comment here. The one Gorilla is Qualcomm. The one King is JDSU with the prince being SDLI, and now we can think of JDSU/SDLI. Both IMO are the best gorilla and king I know - but then I start with technology and wireless and fiberoptics are the best places to be I know of. Re timing: Basically buy and hold. If those young whippersnappers such as yourself persist in such stuff, a comment. Having followed these for several years, I would suggest that the Q is by far the safest re: downside risk, and the outstanding choice re: upside potential. JDSU/SDLI it a great second choice. Its a king even with SDLI as an add on, and it has no ownership of anything like CDMA. But it is in the right place with the right stuff at the right time. If a choice is to be made now, SDLI is IMO the way to buy in. Done. Best to you, and your Techbaby could do worse IMO than to have you as a Dad - a throw away line I suppose - like those notes at the end you seem to find such pleasure in. Best as always. Cha2