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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (3805)	9/26/2000 5:55:24 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Hey lurqer. Thanks for that excellent, well thought out post...... sobering if you are a bull...... "Actually I don't believe either the earnings or the warnings have been all that bad. However it's not the facts, but the psychology (i.e. not the earnings but the jitters) that affects the market" I won't argue with you about how important psychology is. If the negative perception about earnings/hard landing persist, the market will struggle.... or worse test new lows..... on the other hand..... We are in an election year..... the incumbents will likely be working hard to see the markets perform well...... money has been flowing into mutual funds lately...... boomers have a long term horizon & plenty of cash.... most boomers are looking to invest with an eye on superior long term performance..... that's equities me thinks..... earnings are still looking strong going forward in many segments of the economy, albeit YOY earnings comparisons will be against strong growth in the prior yr...... inflation has not made signs of overheating per the PPI/CPI..... money supply has been edging up since mid-April..... The market climbs a wall of worry. I'll admit that I've got a cautious eye out for the bears to show up. I still see a bullish economy going forward. Hopefully, the psychology will change soon, perhaps with the assistance of the houses/analysts. Still hope your bear scenario is wrong :-\| Ö¿Ö Tim@bull/bear/whowillwin.com

To: lurqer who wrote (3805)	9/26/2000 7:27:00 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Lurqer; You know me......I bring the news and after hour quotes........but I do have one thing I noticed on your post last nite....... Granted we could be headed for a Bear market but I believe we just received the signal that this article points out..... If you take a look you get the signal for the bear market ahead of time.......but if you also look the bear markets never happened in the seasonal months of the year which are November and December.......However look out thereafter??????????????? So I'm probably making a mistake by "playing" the market for another 20+% but I'm keeping stops in place and ready to go to the side lines quickly even though I feel Friday's action was short term bullish. Here are the other dates. July 22, 1929-----7 weeks before crash December 14, 1961------10 weeks before crash January 31, 1966------1 week before crash October 25, 1968-------26 weeks before crash December 12, 1972------4 weeks before crash April 6, 1998-------15 weeks before crash September 18, 2000------?????????? FWIW, dealie &hearts;