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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (37479)	9/26/2000 9:18:41 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Mike, It appears that Institutional money is forecasting the end of this cycle. I think this is the 17th prediction for the end of the last 3 cycles. Yet they still think they can anticipate its end despite all evidence to the contrary. They've worried that Greenspan has brought a premature end to the economic expansion, but the economy continues to show robust growth. They've worried that the falling Euro has made US goods too expensive and reduced profits, but the economy continues to show robust growth. They've worried that rising oil prices would kill the economy, but the economy continues to show robust growth even as those oil prices fall. They've worried that chipmakers will push out and / or cancel orders even as orders continue to eclipse record highs based upon record chip sales. They've worried that DRAM spot prices are signalling a glut by their falling prices. These wizards seem not to understand that DRAM prices consistently trend down until what was last year's leading edge chip falls to below $4. Then these wizards finally understand that there's a new leading edge chip that they should have been monitoring. Hint to institutional wizards: Look at the price of the 128Mb PC133 chip. Anything smaller or slower is trailing edge. And within a year, start monitoring the 256Mb chip spot price. And if you lack the intelligence to figure out what leading edge is, perhaps you shouldn't manage money. I know that you turkeys no longer manage any of mine. Yes, we often see Septembers like this, just not the last 2 or 3. And INTC's 3rd Q is practically always exactly like the one they will deliver this year. Given that the PC makers aren't seeing a corresponding slow down; whereas the cellular guys are; and INTC is the world's largest flash memory seller, my guess is that INTC got nailed by the cellular transition this Q. i.e. - Its sales to NOK were less than planned. Is there risk in the market? Sure that's why we're here. But there's a hell of a lot less downside risk today than there was at the beginning of the month. ... and a whole lot of upside in front of us. IMO, Ian.