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To: NucTrader who wrote (21969)	9/26/2000 11:08:38 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

thanks for this link! the NAZ wave count presented is EXACTLY the same as my count! it is rare to see e-wave counts by different people agreeing with each other. i have much less confidence in SPX/Dow, as their wave positions are far less obvious (i.e. the NAZ remains the easiest one to count with confidence for a relative layman like me. note, i'm far from being an expert...i merely dabble in this). i see that the SPX/Dow counts are 'best fit' counts relative to the NAZ count...i.e. they are made with the same conclusions in mind. at least the Dow is presented as slightly differently positioned, but still implies the same conclusion directionally. note, there exists an alternate bullish count for the NAZ that looks increasingly less likely to be correct, but for the sake of completeness needs to be mentioned, as it expects (marginal) new highs. i reject this idea already on fundamentals. to engineer another drive to new highs in the near future, an incredible amount of money would need to be thrown at it. where is it going to come from? already the year with the biggest mutual fund inflows ever for a nine month period, as well as the biggest inflow into stocks from foreign investors ever, as well as the biggest increase in margin debt ever has so far produced extremely disappointing results. apparently the combination of IPO's, secondaries, insider selling, the dropping out of huge players (Tiger, Quantum) and a dearth of share buybacks have conspired to overcome the largest inflow of money this bubble has ever seen. we have to consider in fact that the March high in the NAZ was possibly a secular high - one that won't be seen again for a long long time. while we have been conditioned by the mania to never rule out an attempt at new highs, secular tops DO occur, and this sure looks like a prime candidate. i regard it as a close relative of the '89 high of the Nikkei.