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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ftth who wrote (899)	9/27/2000 3:03:01 AM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 46821

I can't wait to see TeleCrossing's TV ads. They don't even have their rooftop hubs synchronized yet, and they're already taking shots at everyone else: "TeleCrossing service will also be available to the currently dissatisfied broadband subscribers of Cable, DSL, and one-way satellite broadband." By the way... their schema is reminiscent of both Ira Brodsky's and Dave Hughes' discussions with Gordon Cook in the February and July reports, respectively. From the Brodsky issue: Wireless Reaches Internet Critical Mass Internet Use Jumps to Mobile Platforms as Spread of Digital Infrastructure Enhances Wireless Capabilities We Survey Issues and Players in Internet Wireless Services In that issue they spoke about another satellite operation similar to TeleCrossing, who go by the name of Tachyon. tachyon.net Tachyon, according to the article, was supplying the backbone (both in the sky and through a terrestrial fiber backbone provider), and the local wireless hubs were being supported by ISPs. Again, primarily in rural, underserved locales. FAC

To: ftth who wrote (899)	9/29/2000 7:07:18 PM
From: justone	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 46821

ftth: This technology, satellite to the home (stth) reminds me of earlier technologies with satellites even before the ill fated Iridium. Let me try some back of the envelope calculations: Roughly: - say @4.4 Kpbs real continuous data demand per active user (this is the total demand for the user averaged over the web session) - these users share 44 mbps as quoted in the press release - peak demand is one active user per 5 subscribers This means one satellite can handle ~50,000 subscribers. Now the capitalization cost of 20K subscribers should not exceed 20 times the revenue at say $50 per month. So, by one estimate, that capitalization should be less than $2,500,000 to let the system make a profit. I don't know, but launching a satellite and building a ISP network seems like it might cost more than that. In fact their whitepaper at their site notes "Although costs for satellite systems are daunting‹estimates range from $4 billion to more than $10 billion for global systems" with $700 to $1200 user costs estimated. If you had 100 LEO satellites (more than the 88 for Iridium) this would be, say best case 40 million for the satellite, and $700 for each user, for a mostly rural market. Iridium at least assumed high end users. Low traffic capability and high capital is what usually sinks satellites, faster than gravity. I don't think you will have to rename your alias to STTH any time soon.