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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: muckraker71 who wrote (3937)	9/27/2000 7:12:34 AM
From: Trader Dave	Respond to of 6974

mr71, I have seen lots of technology companies recover from significant misses and surpass their previous high levels. Oracle's done it several times, including for outright fraud! lots of others have recovered nicely as well. However, the recoveries were rarely from valuations at levels like these. Bottom line, I think a quarterly miss is absolutely something to fear. However, it is my suspicion that there is a tremendous amount of "virtual" backlog in the numbers currently. Overall, i think your analysis is pretty spot on, unless SEBL can be a leading participant in what i would guess could be the next phase of enterprise applications.... New business process that creates a dynamic interaction between the demand and supply chain... in essence over the next few years we should start to see applications that directly connect customers with the "supply chain" (including the "supply" chain for service companies) to enable real time custom product or service creation and delivery. That will make the prior markets look minute. My guess is that it won't come from SEBL, but maybe they swallow a private company doing a good job. TD