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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (10365)	9/27/2000 1:59:52 AM
From: Charles R	Respond to of 275872

Kash, <I suspect that Q4 at Intel will be tough and they may well preannounce this in their conf call.> You may be right. Prices for low-end chips (sub 700MHz Celerons and PIIIs) seem to be declining rapidly. I can see Intel selling sub 700MHz PIIIs at close to Celeron prices to makeup for Celeron shortages in the near term and also possibly changing the Celeron mix for Q4 to some number larger than the previously rumored 25%. That will help market share erosion but ASPs should tank. Based on the Q3 data so far it looks like Intel ASPs are down about 3% for Q3. I can see that falling another 3-5% for Q4 if PIIIs takeup Celeron sockets. <I fully expect spectacular numbers for AMD in Q3 and Q4 vs street expectations.> This is the first time in a long time I don't feel as confident. Primarily because AMD had an uphill task this quarter - K6s out of most laptops and desktops in retail and Durons had motherboard problems and add to that there seems to be some tailing off in demand at the end of Q3. The upside is AMD got significant new design wins at Emachines, Micron and Tiny this quarter. So, I expect solid earnings (north of 0.70 but would expect only about 6.8Mu). Would like to be surprised positively on units. <However if market get spooked that Intel is suffering and we are entering an oversupply situations starting Q4 we may see major drops in both companies. And i dont see AMD as immune from Intelitis.> This can change if AMD units are at plan or above and if the Q4 guidance does not go down. That could give a lot of immunity from your "Intelitis". <And unfortunately for AMD starting Q1 next year spectacular YOY gains become more difficult as taxes come into play.> The 20% accounting number that kicked in last quarter should help alleviate the problem big time. It is conceivable that AMD can slowly rachet up the tax numbers to make it even more favorable. If AMD can really sell 9Mu in Q4, representing a >=20% market share, the street will be in complete awe and none of this will matter. Let's see. I remember reading that you bought a few calls lately, so... Good luck, Chuck