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Gold/Mining/Energy : KOB.TO - East Lost Hills & GSJB joint venture -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Enigma who wrote (12028)	9/27/2000 12:39:21 PM
From: Check	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15703

Hello Enigma, if I may step in, (Grayhairs works mostly the nightshift these days <gg>), I also own a chunk of ELK and yes, some of that at higher prices, as do many of my friends, ex-friends and all the other fools who listened to me. Hell, I won't beat about the bush, I even own 40,000 of their warrants, half of which I acquired as long ago as last October. <ggrrr> This is by way of saying that I follow the company fairly closely -or that I am the biggest fool of all, some days I am not sure which. <<Look at it another way - from ELH only include future cash flow from BKP #1 - how does the current stock price stack up as a multiple of 2001 cash flow per share do you think?>> ELK is currently producing 4,900 Boe/d and should exit 2000 at about 5,000 boe/d. Assuming only a modest 5% production increase to 5,250 boe/d plus 15 Mmcf/d BKP # 1 production as per Berkley's estimates, ELK's 2001 cash flow should be at least $1.64 per share. (basic - this is based on 26 MM S/O, WTI $26, HH $4.00, C$1.46) If these pricing assumptions hold and they miss this modest production and CF target by more than 5%, I'd suggest we fire the management and sell the whole damn elk herd to a meat pie maker. <gg> $3.41 now, huh. That's less than 2.1 times my target CF. Sweet Shepherd!! CIO

To: Enigma who wrote (12028)	9/27/2000 1:03:47 PM
From: grayhairs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15703

Good morning enigma. I apologize for not having responded to your recent PM. I have recently been putting in a bit of time on a couple more chapters for my book !! <gg> I do sympathize with your difficulty in "sorting the wheat from the chaff" !! It is of course frustrating for us all. <<...how much of the ELH future drilling speculation is reflected in the price do you think?>> Wrt ELK, I just this morning received a PM from a very solid "analyst" whom I trust completely on these matters. He had just "checked it out" via a discussion with Aidan and is projecting 2000 CF at $1.18/share FD. So, at a last trade of $3.41, ELK now trades at 2.9xCF2000. Amazing !!! With debt running 1.6-1.7 CF2000, it would be damn tough for anyone to convince me that there is any value in the current price for "existing" California assets let alone for "future ELH drilling speculation" !!!!! Clearly, "the market" (which of course knows all) is penalizing the ELH players. So, what an extraordinary opportunity !!! <<Look at it another way - from ELH only include future cash flow from BKP #1 - how does the current stock price stack up as a multiple of 2001 cash flow per share do you think?>> I'd estimate $3.41 to be ~2.2xCF2001 (where CF2001 includes Canadian operations plus BKP#1). JMHOBWDIK. Wrt commodity prices, I continue to hold and roll my long crude oil and natural gas futures positions as I believe that much upside still exists. IMHO, some very significant near term price spikes are coming (Eg. WTI ~$50 and NG to double digits). North America is certainly not "out of the woods" yet !!! It is laughable that people appear comforted by Clinton's recent release of SPR volumes. Have a good one. Later, grayhairs