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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald B. Fuller who wrote (37523)	9/27/2000 2:58:23 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

No, I don't disagree. I am certain that, in the next downcycle, AMAT will bottom at a P/S of 1-3. That is the clear historical pattern. Valuations of the last 18 months are an "outlying data point", an anomaly. I am uncertain about whether that downcycle has begun. If it has (and the 2000 stock high won't be seen again till 2002), the signs are still very unclear. It is unclear whether all the profit warnings (and sharply falling stock prices) in semi-land, represent capacity constraints, or demand softening (to be more exact, a decline in the demand/supply ratio, rather than an actual decline in demand). If I was guessing (and it is just a guess), I'd say the P/S bottom will be closer to 3 than 1. But, an unemotional risk/benefit analysis must take into account the potential for AMAT going to a P/S of 1. That is especially true for anyone using margin or options. OK, I'll add you to the list of Real LTB&Hers. That makes two. JS@theirritatingvoiceofdoom.com