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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chic_hearne who wrote (124930)	9/27/2000 3:29:15 PM
From: Umunhum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1575173

Go buy the book "the roaring 2000's" by harry dent. There is no logical comparison between the depression and today. Booms and Bust of the economy are purely based on consumer spending. People are in their peak earning and spending years from age 31 to 48. When this demographic group peaks that will be the end of this spectacular market. This group peaks in 2008, so we have a few good years left. FWIW Japan group peaked in 1989 the exact top of their market. In the book, he shows the graph of this demographic age group compared to the market and there is an pretty compelling correlation. The only monkey in the wrench that I see is energy problems.

To: chic_hearne who wrote (124930)	9/27/2000 3:31:37 PM
From: combjelly	Respond to of 1575173

chic, RE:1929 Sure, there are certain parallels to 1929. But the world situation is considerably different, and that was what led to the collapse. If it wasn't for the US isolationism there is no telling what would have happened to the market, it might not have collapsed so abruptly and might have even kept growing, albeit at a slower rate. So what do we have? The stock market is at a historic peak, all during the '70s the big question was "will the Dow ever hit 1000?". Many places in the country have enormous property values, Silicon Valley and the surrounding areas border on the obscene. Corrections in just those two areas would have a devastating effect, just ask the Japanese. I think that the US economy is in better shape than the Japanese one was when their bubble burst, but that is something that can only really be analyzed after the fact. Yes, the US economy is at a potentially dangerous point. If there is a crisis of confidence and everyone heads for the exit at the same time, the whole things could collapse. But that is almost always the case, especially during most of the last 15 years or so.

To: chic_hearne who wrote (124930)	9/27/2000 3:52:12 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575173

Been reading a lot of books about 1929, it's scaring the crap out of me. I've decided to just play it both ways for now, as posted on the mod thread.... chic, Do those books talk about all the safeguards that have been put in since 1929? Probably not...and if they do, they tell you how those safequards will not work. These books count on selling thru terrified word of mouth. I suggest you go see a flick......"Urbania" or "Almost Famous" are supposed to be pretty good. ;~)) ted