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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (74906)	9/27/2000 6:45:56 PM
From: jim_p	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Investment Highlights from ML 9/26/00: "We are also becoming more optimistic about seismic." • The planned release of 30 million bbls from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is likely to push oil prices lower over the near term and could well put some additional downside pressure on oil service stocks. • Notwithstanding the possible near-term weakness, we believe that the release of the SPR oil (and weakness in the group that has already occurred during the week ended Sept 22 on the speculation that such an event was likely) creates a unique buying opportunity. • The release of the SPR oil should serve to cool the overheated oil markets at least temporarily. But, 30 million bbls is unlikely to raise US inventories close enough to the averages of the last 5 years. Thus, we believe that oil prices should remain well-above levels needed to fund a powerful drilling upcycle. • More important, the SPR release does nothing to resolve the issue of capacity constraints both for oil and North American natural gas. In fact, a pullback in oil prices reduces the risk that oil prices will rise so far that demand will decline thus strengthening the long cycle case. • Near term, we believe that oil service stocks have already partly discounted the lower oil price with the OSX Index at 125.12, down 13% from the all-time high of 143.98 reached on 9/12. • The fundamentals behind our bullish stance remain very much intact. Oil and gas production capacity utilization is tighter than in more than 20 years, and it should take several years of much stronger oilfield spending to add meaningful new supplies. Based on the longer-term price forecasts of ML’s oil and gas analysts, cash flows should be sufficient to support upstream capex that is at least 25% above the last cycle peak. • And earnings power of the oil service industry has increased considerably since the last upcycle helped by cost cuts and consolidations. We continue to believe that our 2001 estimates have upside potential of 10-20% and that most companies we follow will produce record earnings by 2002. • We still advocate a broad package of mid-cap oilfield equipment and service stocks and contract drillers as the way to optimize performance. We are also becoming more optimistic about seismic.

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (74906)	9/27/2000 7:24:41 PM
From: excardog	Respond to of 95453

Sharp end ,question ,I once asked you who you liked in E&P and your response at that time was MMR. Obviously they have under performed to this point but do you still follow them and what is your opinion of them now? They are getting out of the sulfur end which I didn't understand anyhow. Looks as if they have have some drilling success of late. Just wondered what your take was. ps: I thought you might have come on a little strong to isopatch but I'm sure it was purely a misunderstanding I find your posts most informative. TIA

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (74906)	9/27/2000 8:12:20 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

You just don't get it. Do you Sharp? Let's take a look... Told you I don't own or have any interest in PGO or GLBL, so why address your rebuttal to me? You started out fine with an apology to the GLBL and PGO investors on the thread. If you'd stopped at that? You'd have been fine. But you just can't seem to let go, and followed up with this: "If you make a bad call you are human, if you make it twice you are perhaps accident prone, if you make it over and over and over again I think you should eventually be taken to task - especially if you enjoy a good deal of credibility on a public thread. That's not bickering - it's intelligent conversation." And who do you have in mind with that comment Sharp? If there are other(s) here who don't measure up to your standards, then be specific and direct your "constructive" criticism to them, OK? Are you saying that people who make mistakes shouldn't post or recommend the stocks they like Sharp? Isn't that at least implying that you DON'T make bad calls? Please spare us, lol. What almost elicited a ROFL was your contention that taking shots at people and their stocks is "intelligent conversation"?! Oh my! What it IS is YOU setting yourself up as judge and jury of the investment and trading acumen of numerous people on this thread. And it's called spitting into wind.<g> Now I'm going to point this out to you just one more time, at least semi-politely. Here's how it is: That's not a pedestal your standing on, as you unsuccessfully attempt the exercise of talking down to numerous contributors that have been here long before you showed up to enlighten them. It's THIN AIR, and my guess is that you may soon have to negotiate the distance required to get both feet back on terra firma. I've been reading this thread for 18 months. And guess what? You ARE NOT the "sharpest drill bit in the tool shed"! I've said before that IMO you have something to contribute here. But you need to give other people credit for a lot move saavy than I've seen you do so far. It's not being "politically correct" or butt kissing, Sharp. It's reality. And it's a more accurate appraisal of the quality of investors and their stock ideas than you seem to understand. I'm relatively laid back, Sharp. But be advised, not everyone here is. And you best believe if you don't take that chip off your shoulder, my friend, a number of long time and very "sharp" contributors here will be only too happy to oblige you by knocking it into the next county<G>. Well, that's enough tough love from me. From here on, am gonna just sit back and watch. So you can have the last word at me if you feel you need it<g>. Cya... Isopatch

To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (74906)	9/28/2000 11:42:41 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

"if you sat on GLBL for the last year you missed out" ??? re: <<GLBL - don't get me wrong on this one. I've said they've been a dog in the past compared to others in the industry which is quite true - you can compare them to damn near anybody in the service companies and see they have lagged. They are a late cycle play that will get going when lots of new offshore developments go in and need pipelines. They have a bright future, but if you've been sitting on them for the last year or so you've missed out on a lot. Sharp>> Sharp; not trying to make this a long drawn out affair; but where have you been & what the hell you smokin ? GLBL has literally been one of the best performing , fastest breakout movers of all the service co's & one of the most profitable trading, or buy & hold stocks this cycle - especially if you used "any" degree of good money management - ie: trading stop limits, or sold & trimmed into the huge breakouts... The hell with this recent pullback - this is OPPORTUNITY ! - if you'd been here for a while; many, many, many posters trimmed into the May-June Oilpatch strength & have been pounding the table on selling the breakout movers & taking the profits & rotating to laggards; raising cash for just this pullback and above all - at this stage of the cycle; using tight, tight trailing stops. GLBL in the early stage of this cycle up untill the last 8 weeks was one the highest return stocks in all of OS. It has also been one of this threads great plays; ask Bullsky if he remembers the old $5 to $8-$10 days ? And when the "BIG" money was made during this cycle Sharp (where were you ?) GLBL ran "non-stop" from $5/$6 in Nov 1999 to $20 this June - a literal non-stop 3.5 to 4 bagger !?!?!? and you say "this" about GLBL !?!?! << but if you've been sitting on them for the last year or so you've missed out on a lot.>> - WRONG ! if you sat on GLBL for the last year and used any degree of profit taking/trading ability , or merely used common sense money management & used stops; you probably outperformed literally 90% of all the OSX stocks, vastly outperformed the index and should have tripled your money ; let alone during the moderate risk "leveragable" days of Feb to May - when the "smart money" here was leveraged - you would have made so much money on "holding GLBL over the last year" - that you too probably could have walked away from this summers market whipsaw - smelled some roses, done your part in keeping the economy going with a little "cap ex" spending of your own & not worried & been happy....(VBG), maybe bought some Gold Stocks - because you could and then patiently slowly walked down that hill here (just like the Old BULL vs. the Young Bull) and cherry picked the pullback here as well... especially GLBL and now get to ride that "out-perform" GLBL train yet again ! Here is a 1 year chart comparing the OSX to GLBL - take out the last month,or so & GLBL "VASTLY" outperformed the OSX during this entire recent OSX move right thru July. siliconinvestor.com .... GLBL has been very, very good to me & bank on it; it will be again; load thy boat son. GLBL right here, right now - is as good of a risk vs reward play as we've seen in the service/drillers since Feb-March; it's as close to "free money" as you're going to get and its one of the few stocks I would "leverage" into any & all weakness here. ... just my .02 cents. PS - remember; watch what the Saudi's do - not what they say; they owe the elder Bush & the Arabs will do whatever it takes to keep Lieberman out of the White House for obvious reason... Bush is an Oil guy & the son of the Gulf War President - this isn't a tough call either. All the Saudi's have to do is "talk" and not deliver... 2 more months will NOT hurt OPEC, or throw the World into a crisis; but it will pad the Saudi's Vaults & it will guarantee Bush the election... so what do you think the Saudi's & OPEC and the entire Arab world is going to do facing the choice of Gore/Lieberman, or Bush ?