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Technology Stocks : Westell WSTL -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P314159d who wrote (20556)	9/28/2000 8:54:27 AM
From: John Curtis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21342

P: Yah, WSTL's certainly caught in a bearish triangle. It's been below all its moving averages since ~end of July and has not been able to get back above even the 15 dayer in a consistent fashion since then. And when you couple this reality against the reality that, as Rich W. would say, these be bearish days.....well.....all longs need to adjust their styles accordingly to one more oriented to preservation of capital. So even though I find WSTL screamingly over-sold by all future oriented measures and have been adding down here in the $13's accordingly still, my adding is only in nibbles. I'm still waiting to see if this upsy downsy death by a thousand cuts sell on each and every indication of a rally market has stopped being this way, because until it turns WSTL seems caught in your triangle. Now let's see how today goes... John~

To: P314159d who wrote (20556)	9/28/2000 8:59:38 PM
From: max power	Respond to of 21342

Pied, relayed from yahoo and the capt: messages.yahoo.com Re: Captain Smartjack, how's the Qtr. be by: capt_smartjack (41/M/Naperville, IL) 9/28/00 7:15 pm Msg: 25323 of 25331 PI, I'm not sure you will wade through all the crap on this board for your reply, but here goes. I hope you get this somehow..... I'm not sure our differing expectations only reflect inventory balances. Your calculations from last quarter showed 470K chips bought, and 350K modems shipped. For this quarter, you are showing 620K chips bought, and are estimating 465K to 550K shipped out of that. Let's take you LOW estimate. 465K shipped represents a 33% increase over last quarter. Assuming modem prices have stayed about the same, that would equate to a 33% increase in CPE sales. Since CPE sales last quarter were $62 Million, a 33% increase would be $82.5 Million in CPE revenue for this quarter. Using your average of 505K shipped would equate to $89.5 Million in CPE sales. I am stating that I believe WSTL will come in with CPE sales between $65 and $70 Million. This is what MZ told KBRO a few weeks ago, and it tracks with other info I got from my vendor sources. This puts my estimate roughly $15-20 Million under yours. That is why I say we differ on revenue numbers by $15 Million. You may say that modem prices have dropped slightly this quarter, and that may be true. This could account for more chips ordered, but slightly lower revenue. But, I would not expect much of a drop in modem price. WSTL has been working hard to lower manufacturing costs to improve GPM. The lower they sell the modem for, the worse the GPM numbers look. I am looking for GPM to improve a lot this quarter. If I am right, I believe WSTL will hit .09 to .10 with only $120 Million in revenue. If your units shipped number is correct, then revenue could be as high as $140 Million, and earnings would be greater than .12 (IMHO). You stated that many of your inside sources are long gone these days, and you rely on outside sales sources. I would guess we talk to some of those same sales people. But, most of my inside sources are still there. Almost all of my inside sources think that your numbers will not be met. For my sake, your sake, and that of all the longs, I hope YOUR numbers are met. I would love to see revenue of $135-140 Million. I would be happy to be wrong then. But, I believe we will be around $120 Million, and still make earnings. That will keep me happy until next quarters blow-out.