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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)	9/28/2000 12:17:43 PM
From: quickcat	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 100058

DrBob and regular posters thanks for the great thread and generous contributions to this 'community'- I'm a new trader and lurker(2y)and just starting US stocks( most Can) basic set-up( not too nimble!) trade mostly ST with options Don't believe the downgrades on broad/fibre/- this week bought ML 'trust' BDH and PPH for five month hold also CLS , NT and GLE( Can Fuel cell)- thanks to all.

To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)	9/28/2000 12:23:31 PM
From: S.C. Barnard	Respond to of 100058

Dr. Bob: for all you've done for my peace of mind!!! I guess the Nasdaq may have seen the worst for the year, in light of the April correction- I think sellers may have gotten it out of their system with this correction- not as bad percentage wise as the April crash, even with tax selling which was likely to enhance this correction- I think it's pretty baked in now. small caveat: I'm an optimist. I like Corvis-(CORV) I have been selling and buying back lower. I think this new long range fiber optic product will be a highly desired product. The CEO was the CEO(?) of Ciena prior to this. I was also interested as they could be a buyout candidate by CSCO, JDSU or other optical companies. THey just recently ipo'ed a few weeks ago- but I am a lttle concerneed of the ipo shares locked up for release on 10/25. The are now at 63 as I type. I originally bought them at 79. One analyst on cnbc today said he sees the Nasdaq staying prettymuch where it is to the end of the year. I really have some trouble with this. Thanks!!!

To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)	9/28/2000 12:28:08 PM
From: longdong_63	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

I see an 82 point move up and this: CSCO -3/16..ORCL +5/8...JDSU +1 3/8...QQQ +2 5/8. A little concerned about this....the leaders should be screaming if we marked the bottom....that ain't happenin'.

To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)	9/28/2000 12:36:05 PM
From: morokko65	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

RE: Lurker predictions IFMX: nasdaq Dog, retesting 3 year, will have spin off in Jan, and has historically been weak Aug/Sept with highs in Jan-March: target $6.5-9.00 WM: benefiting from low rates and improved consumer credit. takeover target. Target price $45-52, small potatoes for you internet types, but pays a dividend and is a safe haven in downturns. BTGC: Profitable biotech, boring revenues, but several agreements with TEVA and Abbott should pay off in the next 2 quarters. Target $18 ARMF: tiny micro cap, but revs and margins are now in place. First London took a large stake. has a very miniscule float. Just bounced off 200 DMA and may test new highs. Target $7.5 to 9 LU: Dog that is likely to retest $44-46, if the overall market rallies Not gunslinging stocks, but I rather hit 4 easy singles than try for a home run

To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)	9/28/2000 1:03:13 PM
From: the-phoenix	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 100058

Hi, Dr. Bob - Thank you for your request for input from Lurkers, as I have not posted much (too busy!) I haven't posted since the end of August when I gave my outlook for a short-term correction in September. I don't have any favorite stocks, but my short term outlook now is for a 50/50 chance of filling the gap down at 3250 within a couple of weeks before we mark the price/timing bottom of this bear market. This forecast is based mainly on fibonacci ratios and my interpretation of a double top which was confirmed with the move below the 3700 area, suggesting a downside target of about 3150. Regardless of the Nasdaq, I think CSCO will almost certainly hit 50 again within 1-2 weeks, and as such offers a 10%-15% shorting opportunity - thus a "favorite stock" pick. This is based on a very clear triple top pattern in this stock's chart. Once this window-dressing rally is over in a day or so, we should see the selling pressure return at least until pre-earnings warning season is over. The failure of the big-cap techs to move up much during this rally, coupled with some broadening out in the A/D stats makes sense to me when you think of which issues the big boys needed to unload and what they want to be able to say they had in their portfolios during the third quarter. Big caps were not the poster children for the 3Q mutual fund reports, obviously! Biotech should do very well today and tomorrow. The Phoenix

To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)	9/28/2000 1:21:14 PM
From: dwayanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

As of this morning, zero cash, 30% margin (30% of my equity value is margin). short term forecasts Naz rises to 4300-4400 through October and the election, with perhaps roughness tomorrow and next week. Since no capitulation this week or next and no significance to FOMC meeting, the initial rallying may be kind of lethargic. Weak post-election, back on track in December to 4800-5000. I plan to bail out of most everything last week of December and first week of January. favorite stocks NTAP, SEBL, MERQ, ARBA, EXDS -- basic strong tech growth stocks, all (but EXDS) have hit new all-time highs in last couple of weeks, should be good for 35-50% from here thru December. Beta of 2 or so to the NASDAQ. AVCI, SCMR, EXTR -- Network and internet buildout stocks, I expect this to be a strong bubble thru December. Got the positions over the last couple of days, should be good for 75-100% thru December. Beta of 3 or so to the NASDAQ. JNPR is the best quality company in this space, but is too highly priced. Avoiding CORV like the plague, $20B market cap and zero revenues plus IPO lockup expiration in 4 weeks is asking for disaster. RMBS -- I think they are the clear winner in the computer memory patent arena, expect $200-300 by end of December (with a short squeeze or two in there). Stock will be totally news driven. Very similar to QCOM at this time last year, an IP company, probable lock on a very large market, nobody knows how much they'll make but it looks like a lot, etc etc. October earnings should blow everyone's socks off (will include first Sony Playstation installments). Picked up a bunch of Jan 2001 $60 calls on INTC this week (and some October $50 calls to be honest <g>), and have major Jan call positions on RMBS. Above is all intuitive-based on my part, plus I listen to 4 or 5 specific SI posters who I judge to have a good feel for the market and stocks. - Dway (recent lurker)

To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)	9/28/2000 2:50:55 PM
From: xtahce	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

Thank you DrBob for invitation, Cdn investments: Have participated now and then on the thread but at times feel intimidated since I don't do the quick picks, more comfortable with LT and trade around those core holdings. I have come to the conclusion that those with the quickest wit have the quickest fingers with great results and I congratulate them on their trading techniques. Today at 50% cash, had figured that I'd be fully invested as of past Tuesday but still not seeing full confidence in the markets. Leaders had their gains and need to consolidate while the stronger more well known midcaps, who analysts advised against months ago, should benefit as money gets moved about. Have been slowing gathering up some here and there over the last few days. Picked up NT late yesterday. Some other Canadian TSE stocks (most also trade on the NAS/NYSE) that I have and want to increase holdings in are: Alcan (AL:TSE) suffering the effects of Alcoa, AL won't experience same energy concerns that Alcoa has since they generate their own power that operate 90% of their smelters etc. Bombardier (BBD.b:TSE) trains, planes, rec.water vehicles, nice back log and gaining prominence in the aviation field (#3) with strong global presence as well. Celestica (CLS:TSE) In for 18 months. Dropping today to a good entry point as it nears C$110/US$72. EMS, global situation very strong management and for those who like dividends you can always buy their parent Onex Corporation (OCX:TSE) who's the 3rd largest Cdn conglomerate with more brains at the helm than whats normally found in the usual conglomerate out there. Descartes Systems Group (DSG:TSE) B2B, starting to be recognized south of the border with Ariba association etc... too long of a story but I jumped in when it had dropped to C$5.45. Global FourSeasons (FSH:TSE) Pamper Plus - Where do the new money & old money want to stay when globally trotting around? Manulife (MFC:TSE) Waited for it to fall from IPO and then took position, should have some interesting developments within the next year. Global Patheon (PTI:TSE) The outsourcing company to the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries and is global Quebecor World (IQW:TSE) second largest commercial printer in United States with global presence. Research In Motion (RIM:TSE) Been with this since just after their TSE IPO.. U.S./Canada/South America/Europe. Very volitile but I live with it. Others might want to wait until after they report tonight. Talisman Energy (TLM:TSE) Took a beating earlier this year and that gave me the excuse to enter when it dropped below C$36.00 Exploration, production and marketing of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids and sulphur. Recently bought a few gas lines from TransCanada Pipeline. I don't know how much more upside there is to this one but it's a keeper. Toronto Dominion Bank (TD:TSE) I've always liked this financial investment. Global There are others, but these are what I consider to be my focus stocks and I'm sure that you've noticed that they either have or will soon have global presence.... not bound by borders. Some are great for position trades, most for the sanity they give me. X

To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)	9/28/2000 4:51:04 PM
From: 3_putt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

DrBob: "***REQUEST*** I would like all lurkers and posters to share their short term forecasts, and especially their favorite stocks (and why) for the next 3-5 months (position trades), so that our community here knows about the good stocks to research, ok?" DrBob, thanks for all you do to provide confirmation and/or a contrarian view (even more valuable!) of my own TA. I am a swing trader, so I don't know if you wanted to see my shorter-term picks. I am long ASPX, COBT, and a smaller position in NTIQ. My view of the market is ... well, first here's a picture of the chart I use to monitor the NASDAQ... photos.yahoo.com The most telling thing on this chart at this time is the OBV. Notice the damage done to the OBV from late March to mid-April. It took us from mid-April until Aug 28 (marked with the vertical green line) to repair all that damage. We were actually in new OBV territory from Aug 28 thru Sep 1. Now notice the extent of the OBV damage done in September. Pretty severe, huh ? So, first we need for the MACD red line to successfully cross up over the blue line, then successfully cross the zero line and start soaring above it. However, that will do us no good unless we can repair that OBV damage. Translation: we desperately need some serious volume to come back into this market. Today was a good start - 2.0 billion, but there is much more damage to repair...it may take some time. 3Putt...remember those tight stops, everyone...out

To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)	9/28/2000 5:07:22 PM
From: r-a-t-z	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

Per Drbob request for stock list: Let me note that I tend to specialize in very speculative positions in various new technology sectors. My portfolio rarely has more than two positions that can boast a positive PE. In fact, I often leave market "experts" shaking their heads. However, I seem to be doing something right (knock on wood). I am a dreamer by disposition and I like stocks that excite my imagination about the future. I guess I figure that when something excites me it will also excite others. If the excitement wanes, I bail. So far I have a lot more winners than losers and my bottom line is growing at a decent pace. I might also note that these issues tend to jump and dive quickly with news and I try to be nimble when this happens. If one of these blasts off I am quick to dump all or part of my holding and take my gains. Often, when a stock dives I find a little patience is all it takes to wait out the next jump. When I have a stock I really believe in, however, I usually maintain a core holding that I rarely touch. All this said, here are the stocks I am watching: Imclone IMCL (a biotech with a possible wonder drug) Avant AVAN (may have an inoculation for cholesterol -- yes, inoculation. Other good stuff, too) General Magic GMGC (voice-user interface with ties to General Motors and IBM -- only time will tell what comes of these association) Fonix FONX (very troubled and very speculative voice-user interface company, but this over-the-counter stock is dirt cheap and may just pull it out if VUI catches on soon) Maxim MAXM (another biotech with a possible blockbuster drug that could hit the market in the next year) Geron GERN (stem cell and other genetic research -- need I say more) Magainin MAGN (somewhat trouble biotech with some potentially good drugs in the pipeline. I have traded this stock between the $1-3 and $5-7 ranges a number of times. What can I say, it works and the company may actually come up with something good sooner or later) Supergen SUPG (They have had some business setbacks lately, but the research is good and they are trading relatively low now. I just started to get back in, but I am watching it closely) This may be more than you asked for Drbob, but, you did ask . . . regards, ratz

To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)	9/28/2000 10:19:23 PM
From: lilbully	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

Thanks for the invitation Doc. ADVP, NVDA, MCRL, PCCC, From Inv.Buis.Day. I don't know if there my favorites yet, but I'm watching them closely I'd love to hear what ya'll think. Forecast?... The most volatile year in stock market history has 3 months to go. I think October could be as ugly as September has been. Or worse. I believe the Bear is getting tired, But the light always burns brightest just before it burns out. Christmas will bring Record net sales and good profits all around. Americans made alot of money this year, I think they'll be spending some of it. Then the Bull will be back. But I know very little about this game. I am a Bull of very little brain. That is why I choose not to clutter up your board with nonsense. Back to lurking. Thank you Bob.

To: Drbob512 who wrote (6799)	10/3/2000 11:23:27 PM
From: kleht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

DrBob - In response to your post #6799: (lurkers & part-time posters) Some of my picks for the next several months are: Solid companies that are or have been beaten down and could be good for the intermediate or long-term: psft (already had a good run, but still good potential)btgc gblx wcom t cmgi ericy lsi nite Smaller, more speculative companies, but seemingly good potential (some are really beaten down): allp bpnt clw gspt mesg sqst vlnc bout mdea Keep in mind I'm much more of a long-term investor. Most stocks I invest in should take years to work out. The above could do well in the shorter term because of the thrashing they have experienced since March. But anyone looking at these should really do their own DD. I wish I were perfect. Unfortunately........ As to my thoughts about the future of the market I submitted post # 6091 before I went on vacation 9/23. I just got back and I can't say I've changed my mind any. There has not been much improvement in the put/call ratio. Yes, there has been some, but it's not even close if one wants to be comfortable with a possible bottom approaching. If we do not have some panic in here in the next couple of weeks, accompanied by a vastly improved put/call reading (which could still happen) I would be very suspicious of any bull move lasting longer than December. And I'm not convinced the move itself would meet expectations. To clear the atmosphere I feel we need a dramatic change in psychology and it could come within two weeks. But, I still think an approach in the NASDAQ to 3000 (or a little beyond) would be needed to do the trick. And I suspect it's coming. Personally I have been adjusting my portfolio gradually in order to take advantage of any rally over the next 3-5 months. My cash position is down to 5%. Over the next two weeks I will eliminate most of that, but only if my scenerio unfolds and/or some individual stocks act as if it did.