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To: isopatch who wrote (74992)	9/28/2000 4:19:50 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

There are three issues that the analysts have not figured out yet. These three issues will cause NG usage to be higher this winter. The analysts will probably figure it out after it is obvious. 1. Substantial parts of the Northeast have/are switching from HO to NG due to the availability that the Maritimes Northeast pipeline provides. 2. About a third of all heating is from electricity. The NG plants being built are not all peaking units. Many are baseload units supporting the increased demand of the past few years. In addition a lot of nuclear generating capacity is getting ready to retire. 3. As NG prices come down Aluminum and fertilizer plants will reopen or increase utilization, preventing the fall in prices that many analysts expect. Lastly there are the power increases due to the growth of the Internet. This is not a trivial issue.