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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (15162)	9/29/2000 8:53:33 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 60323

Zeev, <<some fabless companies have cancelled orders, when that starts to happen, is typically when the cycle peaks.>> Well, I know that these words are always dangerous ones to repeat, but "This time it's different." There are so many more uses for semiconductors than there were in the past. What is significant to me is not that some fabless companies cancelled orders, but that other fabless companies are still begging for capacity, and are soaking up what in the past would have been idled equipment. The whole semiconductor business is much more diverse that it was even 3 or 4 years ago. There are more uses for chips coming on line every week. And these aren't just small specialty businesses, these are huge businesses, whether it be playstations, cell phones, PDAs, "smart" appliances, digital cameras, video equipment, set-top boxes, cars, etc., I'm sure you can double this list. Plus there are more consumers of these things now than there were 3 or 4 years ago, not just more things. I don't know, it seems to me to be a gutsy call for Joseph to make, but I think he (and, I guess, you as well) is wrong. My biggest worry on SST is, how much double ordering has been going on, are they on top of any possible inventory buildup that may be going on in their customers. My biggest worry with Sandisk is, can they keep yields and margins up while aggressively lowering CF and MMC prices, and increasing the MB capacity of each of them. We'll just have to wait and see. In the meantime, we can expect the volatility to continue, as now one camp, now another, gets the upper hand in the market. Earnings warnings season is bound to lead to increasing anxiety. Next week should be the last week of this. I'm not forgetting either that AG & Co. has plenty of room to lower rates if the economy really tanks. It ain't over till it's over. Sam