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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (22898)	9/29/2000 7:26:18 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

David: LOL!! Well put. Maybe that's why my preference is to go places in my little single engine plane than crammed into a sardine can with 200 others. (g) You of course may well be accurate in your assumption that the printing presses will turn back the tide yet again, but at this end, this summer's big research effort provided me with a view that the damage to the tech sector is now just too massive to be covered up by silly accounting games or by the dreams of N.Y.-based pimps. As well, the evidence suggests that the destruction in tech land is accelerating. Unfortunately, the funds as well as the public are buried in tech stocks and have no chance of escaping (who buys?) "Pushing on a string" was an infamous phrase in the thirties (referring to the wide-spread availability of credit that few wished to access) and I now have five solid months of hard evidence that the U.S. economy is not only slowing, but that the slowdown is being led by an increasingly wary (and heavily indebted) consumer. The evidence also suggests some acceleration in the slowing process. If I am right, and the consumer is in the process of pulling in his horns, then the Fed can print until the cows come home and it will not matter. A discontinuance of the consumer's half-decade-long borrowing binge spells "the end" for this elderly bull market. My basic belief, as spelled out in August, is that the market is about to be overwhelmed by bad news which will be exacerbated by a slowing U.S. economy. As the economy slows, the markets will pull back (perhaps even crash). A crumbling market will guarantee the repatriation of off-shore money that has been flowing into the U.S. and offsetting that staggering trade deficit (at least for that portion of the inflows that is actually investment money as opposed to corporate borrowing). Once that commences, the U.S. dollar will be thumped which will just tighten the spiral. Unfortunately, and as we all know, this mania has carried the globe to historic heights of madness, which ensures that the aftermath will be worse than ugly. The printing presses have been the only weapon available to hold back the tide, but the impact those presses have is shrinking fast now. Methinks the odds are heavily stacked in favour of a fall "crunch". Best, Earlie