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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jamok99 who wrote (10680)	9/29/2000 3:07:00 AM
From: Petz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

jamok, re:<If the analysts interpret Apple's news as confirmation of a pc slowdown, then even good AMD earnings may be overshadowed by the market's mood - kind of like breaking the bank, but you're in the casino room of the Titanic, and no one gives a s**t because they're trampling each other to get to the exits.> Not true if CPQ, DELL, HWP, GTW don't disappoint, especially not true if AMD increases revenues 10% and super especially not true if TXN, LSI, MU, ALTR, etc. don't disappoint. Petz

To: jamok99 who wrote (10680)	9/29/2000 11:12:52 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

99, RE:"If the analysts interpret Apple's news as confirmation of a pc slowdown, then even good AMD earnings may be overshadowed by the market's mood - kind of like breaking the bank, but you're in the casino room of the Titanic, and no one gives a s*t because they're trampling each other to get to the exits. The analytic community has most often failed to differentiate AMD from anything else in the sector for ages now. If that continues to hold true (and it'll be interesting to see if INTC's news of a P4 delay, if it has impact, also drags AMD down as we've seen a dozen times in the past few months), then the underlying reality of AMD's business that a lot of folks here are aware of won't mean beans, as most analysts don't dig that deep, and their word carries weight. As has happened for so long, the perception* of the street will take precedence over the facts, unfair or not, at least in the short term. So, in short, if AMD is in fact in the same boat of slow demand that appears to be becoming the consensus view of analysts (see the quotes/stories in the last 20 posts), it'll get murdered, along with everything else. If that's not true, it may still get punished for the perception that it's in the same boat. The next few days could be very rocky, unless some analysts step up to rationalize Apple's and Intc's news and the street takes a deep breath. Man, I'm depressing myself as I write this. Gotta go get some Prozac." Excellent analysis. Like I told Scumbria last spring. AMD can do great and the upcoming bear market could depress it...timing is everything. In a bull, AMDs great earnings have the stock price 3 times higher...est. The good news is that tax loss selling will be slowing soon.. and hopefully the perception bottom in semis will be nigh. Jim