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To: MikeM54321 who wrote (8650)9/29/2000 9:16:08 AM
From: elmatador  Respond to of 12823
 
With Alcatel everything is "possible"... I couldnt resist Mike



To: MikeM54321 who wrote (8650)9/29/2000 5:45:12 PM
From: zbyslaw owczarczyk  Respond to of 12823
 
MIke, Alcatel Reaffirmed by Dell'Oro as Worldwide DSL Market
Leader
Paris - August 31th, 2000 - Alcatel (Paris: CGEP.PA and NYSE: ALA) today announced
that new research by Dell'Oro Group has reaffirmed the company's huge worldwide lead
in the ADSL market. Alcatel's ADSL market share as measured by line shipments into
central offices during the second quarter of 2000 increased to 54.2%, more than three
times that of its nearest competitor. Alcatel has shipped more ADSL lines than all other
suppliers combined since volume shipments began in 1998, according to Dell'Oro data.

"In the second quarter of 2000, ADSL continued to be the DSL technology
of choice, representing 76% of all DSL lines shipped," said Willem Verbiest,
vice president responsible for Alcatel's DSL business. "ADSL continues to grow at
the expense of SDSL, and Alcatel is clearly the market and technology
leader in that space."

Moreover, Alcatel's cumulative market share increased ten percentage points over the
same period last year to 54%, while the share of its nearest competitor declined eleven
percentage points to only 13%.

Overall Alcatel shipped more than one million ADSL lines in the second quarter, bringing the
total for the year-to-date to 1.8 million. In June of this year Alcatel up-rated its forecast for
total DSL shipments in 2000 to 5 million, and these latest market figures put the company on
target to achieve that goal.

"The challenge for Alcatel in aggressively growing shipments in the ADSL
market has become one of supply, not demand." said Pearse Flynn, president
of Alcatel's carrier networking group. "Our order book is huge, and our efforts
are shifting so that we can manage our supply chain for the benefit of
our many ADSL customers world-wide, in the face of an industry wide
components shortage. These figures prove that we can do just that."

Alcatel's market share is fuelled by sales to the world's largest and most successful
network operators, most at the beginning of aggressive and large-scale ADSL rollouts. In
North America, SBC Communications, Verizon, Bell South, Bell Canada and New Edge
Networks are in the vanguard of ADSL deployment. There are an estimated 130 million local
copper pairs connecting homes to the telephone network in North America, and each one
is potentially a DSL connection.
The picture in Europe is as positive. Alcatel's high profile European customers include
France Telecom; KPN of the Netherlands; Telefonica of Spain; Telecom Italia; Belgacom;
Swisscom; Telekom Austria. In the UK, BT launched its initial broadband portfolio to service
providers, corporates and other licensed operators on June 29 this year and yesterday
launched its entry-level broadband offering - BT IPStream 500 - using Alcatel's ADSL
modem technology. BT's rollout currently covers 35% of UK households, equating to 7.3
million homes and over 1 million businesses.

Kingston Communications, a competitive service provider in the UK market, is currently
offering one of the most advanced ADSL-based services in the world. Customers have the
option of subscribing to 55 channels of high-quality broadcast digital television, on-demand
movies, fast always-on Internet browsing, email and telephony. Kingston's aggressive
roll-out plans will move up a gear on the advent of local loop unbundling in Europe.

In Asia Pacific major customers include Singapore Telecom; Telstra of Australia; Shanghai
PTA; Hong-Kong Telecom. Hanaro Telecom of Korea is Alcatel's second largest ADSL
customer world-wide. South America is also a burgeoning market for ADSL, and last
quarter Alcatel shipped to customers in Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Chile.

Mr. Flynn added: "The textbooks say that when you have more than double
the market share of your nearest competitor in a tornado market, you own
that market. Alcatel is the 'A' in ADSL."

About Alcatel DSL
Alcatel is the world's leading supplier of DSL solutions, helping service providers
everywhere deploy an expanded range of revenue producing offerings and applications
such as high speed Internet access, voice over DSL, and video services. Alcatel's DSL
solutions are available on a variety of service platforms, including the Alcatel 7300 and
7350 ASAM; the Litespan NGDLC; and environmentally hardened DSLAM packages
optimized for remote terminal deployment, the Alcatel RAM (Remote Access Multiplexer)
and mini-RAM. This complete set of deployment options gives service providers the
flexibility to bring DSL service to all potential subscribers in their service areas, regardless
of network topology. A unified element management solution, AMS (Access Management
System), manages voice and data services for the Litespan and the ASAM product family.
The Alcatel 46020 Network Manager, an integrated scalable network management solution,
seamlessly manages these products at the network and service layers. Alcatel's DSL
technology is also offered in an advanced range of customer premises equipment, the
Alcatel Speed Touch" family of DSL modems, routers, and integrated access devices
supporting multi-line voice and data service over a single telephone access line. For more
information on Alcatel's DSL solutions, visit alcateldsl.com

About Alcatel
Alcatel builds next generation networks, delivering integrated end-to-end voice and data
networking solutions to established and new carriers, as well as enterprises and
consumers worldwide. With 120,000 employees and sales of EURO 23 billion in 1999,
Alcatel operates in more than 130 countries.

Contact press@www.alcatel.com



To: MikeM54321 who wrote (8650)9/29/2000 6:11:51 PM
From: justone  Respond to of 12823
 
Mike:

Regarding DSL market growth: take the US first. Below is a relatively recent market stat
from Telechoice, that brings to light an interesting observation on why you might not want to
own an IXC right now, at lease if it doesn't own DSL facilities.

clec-planet.com

I'm not sure where he gets the comment about "DSL's growth rate continues to increase
while cable has begun to stagnate"
- I guess he's calculating second derivative
cumulative growth, or something- but let's take his DSL numbers as a given.

If you make the crude assumption that CLEC means HDSL to (small) business, and ILEC
means xDSL to subscribers, then both are growing nicely, though I'm guessing that the
HDSL is a high margin business, while the xDSL is low margin.

But it is important to note that HDSL is a T1 replacement strategy that gets multi-DS0
(formerly fractional T1) voice and data access to the 97% of business that need sub-T1
rates only. A small business typically needs 4-16 ports for voice and fax, and probably only
4-8 for shared data (remember statistical multiplexing- a lot of 'simultaneous' users can get
good bandwidth sharing 8 times 56 Kbs channels).

The real value to these small guys is probably low-cost long distance. Big companies can
negotiate $.03 long distance, and build big VPNs. Little guys (the mere 97% of the market,
and possibly the branch offices of the big guys as well) need to bundle voice and internet
data access to get low rates.

That is why I'm really surprised at the low penetration of IXCs. I would have thought the
only game in town for WCOM and other long distance companies is deploy DSL, take the
long distance business at $.05, take the data business at beating the T1 access using HDSL,
and start piling on the new services, such as web hosting and VPN like features. If they are
doing this it is clearly not facilities based. Most likely they are ceding the small business
market to the CLECS as being too small to go after? But the big guys can keep T1 or
HDSL and use FR or SONET or ATM for voice and 10G fiber for their VPN, or go
VOIP and data all the way.

Note that ATT is an exception to the IXC world. Mike Armstrong announced that he
would be the ILECs biggest DSL wire customer to compete in districts not covered by
cable, but he wanted to own the facilities (own the DSLAM, I guess). His strategy is to own
the customer, own the facilities, and own the broadband transport, but not the content. The
low penetration (1%) may indicate that xDSL deployment at ATT is a low priority
compared to cable.

So I guess I conclude that except for ATT, I don't understand the IXC strategy to succeed
in the future, if they have a future. I guess sprint can get bought out by AOL, but for the rest?

...................................................................................................................................


North American DSL Market Nears
1,400,000 Lines

August 14, 2000 -- DSL lines in service in North America totaled 1,391,478
at the end of second quarter 2000, according to new statistics published by
TeleChoice.

The U.S. had 1,204,478 DSL lines in service at quarter's end. U.S. ILECs
accounted for 76% of the total, followed by CLECs with 23% and IXCs with
about 1%. The IXC deployment figures include only facilities-based
deployments and not resold DSL lines. Canada had 187,000 DSL lines in
service.

To gather this data, TeleChoice interviews each DSL facilities-based service
provider on a quarterly basis.

These figures represent an impressive 59% overall increase in U.S. deployed
lines over the end of first quarter 2000 figures. Led by SBC's nearly 100%
growth, ILECs increased their base by 62% while CLECs increased their
installed base of DSL lines by 55%. In Canada, the installed base of DSL
lines grew by 46%.

"DSL's growth rate continues to increase while cable has begun to stagnate,"
says TeleChoice DSL Analyst Patrick Hurley. "Better availability of self-install
modems, competitive pricing, and the advent of some innovative new services
are really driving subscribership."

"Getting service out there quickly and efficiently remains the key for now,"
added TeleChoice Analyst Adam Guglielmo, "but in the coming months
services will play an increasingly important role in attracting and retaining
customers."