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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SJS who wrote (688)	9/29/2000 11:10:44 AM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

Dave, Guy, Steve - thanks for the responses. And yes, caution in shorting is advised - why this is a "starter position" (so it wouldn't bust me by running to $350 - but I'd be stopped out way before then) - and yes, a chippie is by no means a perfect short against a systems house. But... 70% of AMCC held by institutions - will they take some off the table after this quarter? Will they sell the news? What is the rational explanation for the strength of the optic/comms chippies when all else is faltering? They do need customers - and all the design wins in the world do no good if the purchase orders don't come in. Design wins, even for a 36-month customer product cycle, do not a gorilla make when the playing field is standards based versus proprietary tech. Do agree that AMCC is in the "sweet spot" and that the electronic/optical switching interface will be here for a long, long time. Eventually, I suppose 100% optic systems will be out there and the silicon based guys will have to adapt. In the interim, it might be good for some FUD attacks w/r/t the silicon-based guys - especially those whose prices discount earnings from now until the second coming. Institutions are always capable of lemming-like mass dumping when the light bulbs turn on. 70% ownership by these guys adds to the risk both ways - when these guys stand still or buy, it really shrinks the float - when they decide to sell, it can be in a herd. Good luck to both longs and shorts.