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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggamer who wrote (32595)	9/29/2000 11:58:10 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

ggamer, My guess is that you probably did the right thing in selling Siebel because it will help you sleep at night. However, I also think you sold a gorilla still in its tornado and very, very far from being threatened by a discontinuous innovation. In that light, I wonder if you considered selling a portion of it instead of all of it. I wonder if that might have helped you sleep at night while keeping opportunity potential in such a strong and relatively young gorilla. --Mike Buckley

To: ggamer who wrote (32595)	9/29/2000 11:58:42 AM
From: Dr. Id	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I just wanted to let you all know how bad I feel this morning about selling one of my gorillas. You could re-read TFM and buy it back! :-) (or you could buy some leaps if you still want to participate in it's growth without putting out as much capital...) If you are young and have a long investment horizon, why not let your gorillas ride? As long as you're somewhat diversified within them, the odds of a few of them continuing to greatly appreciate are greater (and will offset) a correction among one or two of them.(Take a look at mathemagician's excellent post from this morning). Note that with the exception of QCOM, most that tanked in April are at or near new highs (and QCOM will rise again if patient...) Dr.Id@LTBHusuallythebeststrategy.com

To: ggamer who wrote (32595)	9/29/2000 12:16:48 PM
From: gingersreisse	Respond to of 54805

"sold my SEBL" I understand your position perfectly. I had the same experience with AMER (AOL's early symbol)in 1996. I made a lot of money, and decided to take it off the table, selling 90% of my holdings. I was scared, and I really didn't understand the vision, I didn't want to see my hard earned $$$ lost, and I didn't understand the logic of Long Term Buy & Hold on firms with controlling franchises. The tiny portion that I kept has done very well, and if I think about the sale (or selling CSCO in 1997 with a significant gain) I will drive myself crazy. Go back and look at a CSCO chart, or an AOL chart. What looked like off the cliff plunges aren't even noticeable now. CSCO took a plunge from around 40 to 25 back then and it seemed like the world was coming to an end. It didn't, and CSCO's never looked back. If you've done your homework, and this stock meets the criteria you've set for it, and there's no discontinuous innovation threat, and it fits your own asset allocation profile, the only real reason to sell would be for a better opportunity with another dominating stock, wouldn't it? That said, the asset allocation model (never let one stock be more than 10% of your investable assets, never let one sector be more than 40%, etc) is a decent guideline for me and my risk tolerance. GSR

To: ggamer who wrote (32595)	9/29/2000 1:57:08 PM
From: Lynn Goodman	Respond to of 54805

<And I think when ever a high flier (PSFT, RMBS, CITX, ELON, MSFT, etc) takes a hit people on this board move on to the next big idea. Then some of us end up wondering what to do.> Ggamer, I identify with many of the things you had to say. On your above statement, let me give you a different perspective. Because thread regulars take a long view, there often is not a lot of commentary on day to day action. When CTXS took its fall, there was discussion for a few days, but the unspoken consensus seemed to be that the breach of faith by management was unrecoverable and there wasn't much more to learn from that or say about it. After reading this thread every day for maybe a year, I find that there is a lot to be learned by reading between the lines and by parsing through the omissions as well as the things that are discussed. I don't think that it is anybody's intention to "move on" and leave anybody behind wondering what to do. It is just that the experience of many regulars tells them how to react (whether for right or wrong, but often the former) rather intuitively and quickly, and then they get back to focusing on the big picture. Best of luck, Lynn

To: ggamer who wrote (32595)	9/29/2000 2:17:14 PM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I sold yesterday/today as well. SEBL had hit just about the mark I was looking for based on it's 40 day moving average. Couple that with a very weak market that is looking weaker by the day and I thought it best to guard my profits. I will be back into NTAP and SEBL later. If the market tanks I will buy even more shares. If the market takes off I may buy LEAPS.

To: ggamer who wrote (32595)	9/29/2000 5:17:50 PM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 54805

I did something similar: I had SEBL LEAPS in addition to common, and sold out 2/3 of them yesterday for the same reasons as you (the other 1/3 were slated to go as well, and will eventually, but their limit order didn't quite hit). Increasingly I see the wisdom of having two separate accounts (either mentally or actually), one ultra LTB&H and one for shorter-term stuff. This way those of us who are simply psychologically unprepared to be pure tortoises can make moves with some parts of our holdings while leaving the rest (core?) untouched. I have convinced myself that such occasional trading on the side is thus on balance actually conducive to long-term holding, rather than a threat to it. tekboy/Ares@butthenagain,Icanconvincemyselfofanything.com PS I also used the proceeds to reduce my margin. PPS One other advantage of exercising your calls would be that you would have exchanged non-marginable securities (i.e. options) for marginable ones (i.e., common), and thus would have effectively reduced your marging load (at least percentage-wise, by increasing your margin capacity) while also reducing your down-side exposure... PPPS If you are thinking of taking any advice from me on such things, go read the header on Id's thread... PPPPS This is to show Bruce that in some circumstances PS's are perfectly acceptable, no matter what that meanie Merlin says...

To: ggamer who wrote (32595)	9/29/2000 10:33:12 PM
From: chaz	Respond to of 54805

ggamer, We all react differently to the same messages. Last evening, I went through my entire portfolio trying to find rational sell numbers for each issue. Slept on it. This morning, I caught the pre-market action, decided to let 'em ride. Not one reached the sell point I had figured. I am kicking myself though. I had a nice gain in GMST and began unloading 90% of my position. Now, if I had not done that, I'd have an even larger gain in GMST. However, those I picked up with the freed cash are, with one excetion, also showing a gain. Look at my hands....no shake! On balance, I'm about $1,000 to the good, and about 80% ahead of where I was after the spring unpleasantness. The Paul Johnson interview was very, very interesting. Time to shift in the directions he discusses? Well, that's worth some study. Isn't that what weekends are for? Chaz