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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce Brown who wrote (32609)	9/29/2000 3:26:55 PM
From: Mathemagician	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Gee, that's grim. Yeah, that was the point. That particular scenario was meant to see just how big the one big winner would have to be under the worst likely circumstances, based on recent experience. Obviously, the worst possible case is that all nine declare bankruptcy, in which case the one big winner would have to be a 12-bagger in order to meet the 20% target. I would like to hope that playing a few baskets of two or three top candidates in each niche game would yield more than one winner from a total of ten companies. On top of that, the eventual consolidation into the winner in each niche would be carried out as well. If the entire basket falls off the face of the earth, then one didn't do their research well enough to buy the basket at the appropriate time in the technology adoption life cycle. Aha! That is exactly how the scenarios described fit into the context of the Gorilla Game. By using the Gorilla Game methodology, we should be able to select those ten stocks in such a way that we can expect two or three really big gainers, with the "losers" either flat or at a market rate of return. A great example would be using the three companies from the Front Office Game as part of the ten companies. None were particularly huge at the outset of the game, but all did well and one was a 6-bagger (I think). Choosing ten companies lets you play three such games simultaneously. This lets you choose three markets earlier in the TALC by providing some protection against the risk that the market never tornadoes (or that we misidentified the position in the TALC). The different scenarios illustrate the extent of that protection by providing sort of a what-if type of analysis. The spreadsheet is trivial to set up and I encourage anyone interested to explore further scenarios on their own. Regardless, we know they can't all be winners. But the aggregate return should make a basket play attractive on a niche game for those that are young and aggressive enough to research it and use the strategy. Vive la difference! M