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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Apollo who wrote (32610)9/29/2000 9:18:17 PM
From: saukriver  Respond to of 54805
 
I exited Exodus, despite being the market leader in Web Hosting with excellent execution to date and in spite of what seemed to me to be very good management. I exited because I had decided that EXDS was clearly in a royalty game, because it had no barriers to entry, and because revenue growth was extraordinary but decreasing, from Qtr to Qtr of 40+% to ~ 30%. Moore has said to dump royalty at the first signs of slowing growth.

Glad to hear that you are out of EXDS. With one possible exception, I think this datacenter industry will face deteriorating margins. (I heard rumor last night that WCOM is buying 16 acres of land for a datacenter near me.) There are a slew of datacenters being built.

The possible exception--and perhaps a reason to consider re-entering EXDS--is access to power. One new datacenter sucks the equivalent power as the University of Washington with the lights left on at Husky Stadium. It is possible the datacenters already built will shutout the newer datacenters, which just may be denied access to power. That could be a BTE. But the power demands are massive and threaten residential consumer rates.

I have also heard that Exodus owns nothing in the way of bandwidth. The Global Center deal may be an attempt to fix that. But I see the web hosting business fast becoming a commodity in which Exodus is the high-priced company. And its customers will have a faster learning curve than, e.g., buyers of high-priced PCs.