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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (75139)	9/29/2000 8:28:22 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

This little storm is getting interesting.... wunderground.com wunderground.com Tropical Storm Keith Intermediate Advisory Number 5a Statement as of 8:00 pm EDT on September 29, 2000 ...Keith drifting northwest and becoming better organized... the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch along the east of Yucatan from chetumal to Cabo catoche. All interests in the northwestern caribbean should monitor the Progress of this system. At 8 pm EDT...0000z...the center of tropical storm Keith was located near latitude 17.7 north...longitude 85.3 west or about 290 miles...465 km...south of the western tip of Cuba. This is also about 225 miles...360 km...South-Southeast of cozumel Mexico. Keith has been drifting toward the northwest but is expected to move slowly toward the North-Northwest near 3 mph...6 km/hr...later tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Satellite imagery indicates Keith is becoming better organized and strengthening is likely over the next 24 hours. Keith could become a hurricane during the weekend. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches. Moist southwesterly winds from The Eastern Pacific could bring torrential rains to portions of central America during the next couple of days and preventive actions should be taken. Repeating the 8 pm EDT position...17.7 n... 85.3 w. Movement toward...drifting northwest. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure... 995 mb. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 pm EDT. The right storm, in the right place at the right time...<G>

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (75139)	9/30/2000 9:08:59 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

PGO...re: the Seismic backlog , glut ? I don't quite buy into the mindset that there is a significant, or "huge backlog" of drilling prospects for which all seismic is allready shot - not by any means.... the new GOM lease sales were a significant improvement over last year and basically are the "answer" to how the Independant E&P's and/or the Majors view their "backlog" of drilling prospects. I think this is greatly exaggerated and is bascially found more among financially over- leveraged small cap independants whose 98-99 seismic spending was a big piece of their cap ex spending on a percentage basis as opposed to the large cap independants & the majors. Look at all the "re-shoots" of old prior seismic that co's like EEX did with Llano for example & many other companies have done with their older prospects of late. Seismic is allways a "late" cycle play and technically alone; PGO will "back & fill" any valuation gaps upon major OSX breakout legs - just like it has done in the first 18 mos of this cycle. PGO is a patient hold, more than a trader stock; but for trading - if you add anytime PGO dips into the $14-$16 range & it has quite frequently; you have continually had numerous opps to take profits & trim into strength - playing a classic "rolling wave" type of pattern that PGO has traded in - as a trader it has been "free money" playing the $15/$16 to $19/$20 rolling wave - trading range for months. PGO has admittedly - less than perfect execution & less than desireable guidance & relationships with analysts; hence it's perennial discount/laggard status. Also, any street sentiment as far as their being a "huge backlog" of drilling prospects - would tend to be "over-priced" into the stock as well. Is PGO the "Best Buy" today ? No. - but at OSX 140ish - if PGO is $17ish ? - Yes, it will be one of the "best buys". Patience has continually been rewarded in the Oilpatch. Raising cash & stepping out of the market on this last bit of toppishness of OSX 130-140 was met with criticism; but look what Mr. Market brought us - a huge leverageable trade in GLBL and many stocks once again getting " very cheap" - ala ~ ATW etc. At this stage of the cycle; given the overall market risk; I'd rather wait for individual type of "special situations" like GLBL - which was an easy call for being massively tax loss sold (it was) - which also would attract speculative short selling (it did); which would also attract "tape painting" at the end of the quarter by those who still hold etc (+ 15% on the last day of the qtr)... but; this is "still" a place risk-wise in the over-all market imho; to keep 20-25% cash if you're not afraid to act upon & even leverage the "GLBL-esque" types of opportunities when they arise - if you have the confidence to leverage these opportunities - take the money & go back to cash & wait for the next opp; you'll continually vastly outperform any buy & hold the OSX strategy imho. Concerning "seismic" - go look at the 97-98 cycle & see what VTS did for example.... while the OSX hit its peak in Oct 1997 at 140ish, then dipped back to the 80's then peaked on its April-May 1998 rally at OSX 120; VTS made its move late - having corrected from $45 in that Oct 97 peak to $30; but then doubling from $30 to $60 in a few months in that late OSX April-May rally. PGO is presently priced below its base price - prior to the beginning of the 97-98 rally; given their FPSO emergence & the future potential to that expansion with GOM approval; PGO by any & all means is one of the few laggards STILL priced "below" the bottom price of the "prior cycle base/bottom" and with a "double" remaining in its stock price in just returning to those former 97-98 peak cycle levels & 50% upside in just returning to it's 52 week high of this prior cycle run this spring. The only way PGO is not an easy money 50% to a double upside play; is if PGO is virtually the only "name" OSX stock that will get no-where near it's 97-98 valuation levels... and someone give me a fundamental, or technical arguement why it's will not, or can not - please... Love it, or hate it; Seismic is late cycle, it is "not" over-booked; PGO will close it's laggard/valuation gap - as it allways has & allways will. It's a low risk 50% minimum upside play to a conservative "Double" with low, low downside risk of about $3 bucks here... From the lows of this pullback point; I'd gladly take GLBL, PGO & ATW as 3 mid+ cap driller/service plays likely to vastly outperform the index over the next 6-9 mos. GLBL & ATW I leveraged; trimmed "some" GLBL into the last day of the qtr "tape painting" as I saw it; held all my ATW & added a bit of PGO as I have done none stop everytime it's dipped to the $14-$16 range. But; I'm still using tight, tight trailing stops; as I am willing to ride any breakouts , or a slow steady stair-step climb in the OSX; but I am NOT willing to correct more than 5-7% here and I am willing to get "completely stopped" out to 100% cash - which I have of late; because I view this market as being more "contrived" if not blatantly - supported & manipulated via "tape painting" & with support from the Exchange Stabilizatio Fund etc.... The account deficit of the US is at levels that have ALLWAYS triggered an exodus from a countries currency; only because of a weak Euro is that exodus being delayed. Inflation is "leaking" thru the entire economy and "if" we see a winter of the levels of heating costs that we should see - the effect of this "Energy Crisis" will bring back the "R" and the "I" words... as in recession (mild) and inflations - as in obvious... That we've seen the once-impervious Tech Bellwether stocks like INTC & CSCO show cracks & when the market continually gives 40-50% haircuts out to names like Kodak, P&G, Apple etc - the market is obviously valued on speculative momenteum and with nothing fundamentally supporting it's present historically irrational valuation multiples & metric's. How many signs does one market have to give people before they'll heed all the warnings ? Account deficit, tight labor market with historically inflationary wage levels of 5%ish and with spending out pacing wage increases on a $3 to $2 ratio ! $35 Oil & perhaps looking at the most expensive heating season in American History - with company after company in industry, after industry adding "energy cost" sur-charges and warning after earnings warning... and we still don't get it ? What's Wal Mart say ? ... look out for falling prices ~ Bubbleonia will soon join Atlantis I'm just hoping this market holds together long enough for me to get my OSX 165+ & $20 GLBL, $30 PGO and $60 ATW - then its all "Gold/PM" stocks & Tech-bubble shorts/puts. Got Gold ? Clock's tickin' Be a "Pig" & not a "Hog" on "Black Gold" and continually rotate those profits into "Yellow Gold" and you'll make some serious bacon in the next 9-12 mos...