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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (37614)	9/29/2000 9:28:23 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, First let me clarify what I describe as a Staircase Step and Landing: looking at a daily chart, a Step is attained by first building a Riser (a day or a series of Daily All-Time Highs). Then the Step is formed by succeeding days of Lower Highs due to Profit Taking --- using an imaginary horizontal Line from the highest price attained as the top of the Step. When the imaginary Line is broken, another Riser begins followed by another Step... A Landing is simply a Wider Step that last many months (the stock not breaking the All-Time high) --- like what we witnessed last year (Feb to Jun), and in 1995-96 and 1997-98 each lasting about a year. This year, the Landing is about 6 months old, as you noticed. The End of the Landing is coming soon. Here's my opinion:--- The AMAT Bear operates best in an Even Year from Apr to Dec. A Bear is described best as one who Sells first then Buy later as opposed to a Bull who Buys first then sell later (if at all). The Bear not necessarily wishes for it but it helps his cause if Disaster upon Disaster strikes causing stocks to tumble down. It is not by accident that during this period (Apr to Oct) that the world we are in have so many activities: in Spring while we are enjoying nice weather, in SouthEast Asia for instance they are suffering in sweltering heat, volcanoes erupting, earthquakes, etc. When summer comes here, they are being punished with storms, floods, etc. Of course here, we also suffer from hurricanes, twisters, fires etc. Not only that, the Bear has a ready ally in Greenspan and the Fed whose policy, by raising interest rates, is to weaken the economy that became robust the Odd year just past (and thus the Poor people the administration put to work are in danger of being out of work again --- all in the name of fighting inflation). The Bear is King during this time period kicking all his might at the Downed Bull... But everything comes to an end --- As Oct comes, Calmness entire the world slowly sets in. As we near Christmas even the Bears are in good cheer. They even silently sing "Joy to the World, the Lord has come...". Even Greenspan perhaps plays with his Saxophone "Hark the Herald Angels Si-ing.." (if what my wife told me is true that Greenspan was once a saxophone player). Yes, Virginia, the AMAT Bear has also a heart --- he remembers that he was once a child that people around him were kind to him. Even the young and probably smart Money Managers whose battle cry was "Look Ma, No Hi Tech" will be uttering "Ma, All I need for Christmas is some Hi Tech..." (During the Christmas season until Feb, or Mar or Apr the Short Bears will in turn Average their Shorts Up... Well, what can we do, that's life...)