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To: GST who wrote (109254)9/29/2000 9:18:27 PM
From: schrodingers_cat  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Hi GST!

Oil prices are going to be a concern for some months to come IMO. Crude prices may be down, but so are US crude and heating oil stocks, not to mention the nasdaq. :( The refinery situation doesn't look any better than it did a few weeks ago, and the margin on refined products isn't coming down.

I don't think that this merits predictions of stock market disaster, since there are some ways (eg warm winter,imports) a crisis can be avoided, but the fall in crude oil prices doesn't merit a huge celebration either.

BTW, I think the NAS is down since you raised this topic a few weeks ago, so thus far it seems to have been a good call.



To: GST who wrote (109254)9/30/2000 7:00:04 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor  Respond to of 164684
 
Bravo, GST! Great post!



To: GST who wrote (109254)10/3/2000 1:46:52 PM
From: michel ciambra  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Im taking a poll. Whta do you people think would be the market reaction to a changed bias towards easing by the Fed tomorrow. Where will the 10 yr note be and where will the nasdaq and dow be? My guess is that this is not priced in at all and therefore:
10 yr note yield = 5.40
dow = 11000
nasdaq = 4000
The bond yield i can prove mathematically from the fed funds rate, the rest is a guess....any thoughts?