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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul A who wrote (2612)	9/29/2000 10:40:46 PM
From: Sharck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

Some technical analysis on two companies we traded today AKAM, DITC: Akamai: provides a global delivery service for Internet content, streaming media and applications. The service improves Web site speed, quality, reliability and scalability and it protects against Web site crashes. For the 6 months ended 6/30/00, revenues totaled $25.4M, up from $404K. Net loss applic. to Common totaled $278.6M, up from $10.1M. Results reflect the introduction of services, offset by amortization related to acquisitions. The 15-5-5 fast Stochastics (%K) just crossed above the Stochastics Divergence (%D) at the oversold 5 mark which indicates the recent low has been tested and AKAM should start to move up from here. The 10-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently hit the oversold 30 mark but is now moving up strong towards the 36 area, which is a very positive sign. The On Balance Volume indicator is starting to move up nicely after reaching its lowest point during the last 12 months, indicating that volume is starting to pick up to the upside. The 12-day Williams %R has been in an overall downtrend pattern since the end of August with slight fluctuations up and down between 85 to 100 during the past two weeks. It is now heading up strong off the oversold 100 mark, ending Tuesday’s trading at 90 in a nice bullish move to the upside. The 8-17-9 Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has been in a leveling pattern at the –4 mark since the end of August with only slight fluctuations. If you look closely you will notice that the MACD is beginning to move up ever so slightly and appears it will break above its Moving Average (MA), which would be a very bullish sign. The 16-8 Price Rate of Change (PROC) just crossed back above its MA and indicates that AKAM is headed a lot higher. The 13-day Money Flow indicator remains in a solid downtrend at this time near the oversold 20 mark. If you look at the 12-month chart on the Money Flow you will notice very strong support at the 20 mark. The downside is very limited and we should see the big-block trades of 10k shares or more start to come into AKAM on the buy side. AKAM is trading just above the 20-day lower Bollinger Bands (75 to 52) and is moving up very nicely towards the upper band. If you look very closely at the 12-month chart you will notice that AKAM has just experienced a double-bottom chart formation with the most recent bottom a little lower than the one that was reached in mid April. You are now seeing AKAM’s price (57.375, up 1.25 Tuesday) start to move up on increased volume off the double-bottom pattern, which is a very bullish sign. Except for the Money Flow indicator, which should start to move upward, AKAM is on all systems go. Take a close look at its Java chart and watch for the MACD and Money Flow indicators to start to move upward. Ditech: designs, develops and markets echo cancellation equipment as well as equipment that enables and facilitates communications over fiber optic networks. For the 3 months ended 7/31/00, revenues totaled 43.5M, up from $9.8M. Net income applic. to Common totaled $11.7M, up from $940K. Results reflect the continued market acceptance of Quad and Broadband products as well as the elimination of product royalty payments. The fast Stochastics just crossed strongly above the Stochastics Divergence at the very oversold 3 mark, which is a very strong and bullish sign. The OBV indicator is in a ROCKET uptrend, confirming the move upward on strong volume. The Williams %R is in a ROCKET uptrend at the 83 mark after coming off the oversold 100 mark, which is another bullish sign that DITC should continue to move upward. The RSI recently hit the 22 mark but is now in a very strong uptrend at 32. The RSI looks like it will continue to move to at least the 42 mark before it starts to loose strength. The MACD is starting to come off of a negative peak at the –4.6 mark and appears it will cross above its MA very soon. When the MACD breaks above its MA you could see DITC move up another 7-10 points. The PROC is significantly below its MA at the –23 mark but just started to turn upward which is a positive sign. The Money Flow Index recently hit the oversold 22 mark and stayed there for several trading days. It is now moving upward very strong, ending Tuesday’s trading near the 30 mark is a ROCKET uptrend. Please note that the big-block buy orders of 10k shares or more are now moving back into DITC. DITC’s price (37.25, up 3.31 Tuesday) is moving up strongly on very HEAVY volume to the upside off the lower Bollinger Bands (60 to 33). This is a very bullish sign as the last time DITC started to move up off the lower Bollinger Band was at the end of July when DITC’s price went from 42 to 69. Take a close look at ISN’s Java chart and watch for the MACD breakout above its Moving Average.

To: Paul A who wrote (2612)	9/30/2000 3:31:53 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

I will believe it when COMS and CS can put together a string of quarters with sequential topline/earnings growth, if not they are failures and should be valued accordingly. What gives you, or anyone else, the confidence they can perform, aside from what mgmt. says? It's a crapshoot at this point, and being "invested" means taking on the risk of a 50% overnight haircut, but this is becoming true of a growing % of equities right now. IMO, software co's present the highest risk - SEBL, VRTS, ORCL... nobody thought it would happen to PSFT either.