biz.yahoo.com
Click on the links in the Statistic column, then go back & look at the data reported. Next, click on the last week link..... note, you can go back many many weeks to see the data that has been reported.......
==========================================================
Economic news
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) Index rose to 19 -- large gain from prior month's 3 -- but wages eased
Jobless claims rose +13,000 to 324,000 -- four-week moving average rose +2,500 to 318,500
August Producer Price Index fell -.2% -- core rate, without food and energy, rose +.1%
Retail sales for August up +.2% -- very soft
July business inventories rose +.2% -- and, inventory/sales ratio edged up to 1.33 months
Industrial production for August rose +.3% -- but July revised down to flat -- capacity utilization edged up to 82.3% -- see below
August consumer prices fell -.1% -- but core rate rose +.2% -- no threat, as expected
University of Michigan Early September Sentiment Index rose to 108.8 from August's 107.3
Last week's reports were about as good as it gets. Economic growth is moderating and inflationary pressures are not increasing outside of the energy sector. The only potential problem is the modest increase in consumer sentiment reflected in the University of Michigan survey.
The magnitude of the increase, which was very small, was not surprising, but the direction of the change was. Given the large run-up in energy costs, my expectation would have been for a decrease because a change of the recent magnitude acts as a tax increase, normally a depressing event.
In any case, the official reports continue to be quite good, implying a soft landing. For instance, retail sales were soft, and as we all know, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) weights consumer spending heavily in their decision-making. And, as longer-term readers know, we had been concerned that back-to-school sales could have been a problem. They weren't.
The other area of major concern for the FOMC is the labor market, and here too the reports are favorable -- as long as you aren't one of those people filing for unemployment claims. For instance, during the last 15 weeks, only six weeks reported a drop in claims, and two of those were very small changes. So, with the four-week moving average solidly above 300,000, it seems safe to conclude that the labor markets have softened and will be of less concern, even to hard-line Phillips Curve advocates (who believe there is a direct trade-off between levels of inflation and unemployment).
At first glance, the Industrial Production Report might appear to refute the slowdown thesis. However, as is often true, the "devil is in the details," or at least in the revisions. In this case, July's original gain of +.4% was revised to unchanged, making the August gain of +.3% much less important. In other words, if one smoothes the two months, the gain is modest and fully consistent with an economic deceleration.
What was referred to above as the "one potential problem" is certainly not a big problem now, and the report doesn't guarantee a problem down the road. It just seems surprising that consumer sentiment is holding up so well given the rapid rise in energy prices. Perhaps this one data point is meaningless, but it could also portend a rebound in consumer spending -- sort of a bounce after the "pause that refreshes." And, the timing could be for the holiday season, an important retail sales period.
My point here is not to make too much of one bit of data, but to keep the consumer spending issue on the radar screen. It seems very, very likely, almost a certainty, that the FOMC is on hold through the elections, and quite probably through year-end.
What we are not willing to concede is that they are finished for this cycle. The retail sales data will be important, and as we have long maintained, if consumers have the wherewithal and the confidence, they will maintain high levels of spending. As noted above, consumer spending is a major concern of the FOMC, so a sharp pickup at year-end would not be welcome and could lead to a rate hike early next year.
This is just a thought, as there is a lot of time between now and then. But, we don't want to sound an "all clear" yet, nor as some have, predict the next move in rates will be down. The data doesn't support such a forecast. It is simply too soon to make that call with any degree of confidence. Stay tuned!
siliconinvestor.com
=========================================================
Looks like the economy is expanding with no significant inflation to this porcher.
Enjoy the weekend RR ;-)
Ö¿Ö Tim |
