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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeke who wrote (695)	9/30/2000 1:55:06 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

Zeke, thanks for the compliment but I suspect overall market had more to do with it. In fact, I was a bit surprised by the Friday mid-morning jam/show of strength up to $218-219. The fundies sure seem to want to show AMCC on the books. If there is a pre-earnings pre-split run up, I will short again. I wouldn't bet on a split right now if only for the reason that it is really inconvenient for the company to do with the merger prospectus outstanding, shareholder votes required, etc. Better to complete the merger, run for a quarter, and if all goes well then split the stock. If momentum players are buying in anticipation of an imminent split, suspect they will be disappointed. However, as far as I can guess there's nothing to suggest the 9/00 quarterly results will be anything less than stellar. The only dark cloud was a shortage of packages from IBM, but it looks like AMCC successfully second-sourced from KYO. FWIW, Norty's John Roth made a statement about two weeks ago that they would have terrific results, and there haven't been any significant negative preannouncements from either the networkers or the opto-comm chipsters. Of more interest than AMCC will be MMC's quarter... From the short scenario, looking at the ol' sell the news and no split gig, funds taking $$ off the table, throw in a little FUD about demand slowing, pro-forma MMC's slower growth effect, and down she goes. P.S. To Kayaker - I said may or may not be dilutive because that presumes foreknowledge of MMC's results, meaning take MMC's eps, divide by .619 (exchange ratio) and compare to AMCC's eps. W/r/t dilution of growth rate, I think you have actually confirmed my statement, given previous growth rate was in the range of 30% Q to Q, or 120% annually ignoring compounding (185% with compounding), versus 100% annually per your CFO quote. So, sure looks like dilution in growth rate to me, which should create an out of line post-merger PEG at the current share price.