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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (8669)	9/30/2000 7:14:38 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12823

"Then we have those companies whose life depend on access technologies, and have touted them to death, who are putting all this smoke screen painting DSL bright future. And them come, in tow, the Delloro's of this world backing them up with figures to support the chimera." elmatador- Very interesting ideas you have. And I believe I understand what you are saying about the motivation behind what you think may be a ADSL smokescreen. Why would Dell'Oro, In-Stat, etc. be motivated to coordinate and confuse the public with their reports? From what I thought, they were independents and made their money off selling their reports to whoever wants them. Be it a Bell or a competitor of the Bells. Even if there is a lot of smoke being thrown up around ADSL rollouts, millions of ADSL lines deployed is a BIG figure considering it only got going last year(previous five years of monopoly power didn't count). I understand that the ADSL equipment companies and incumbents take the stats out of the research firms and have a exaggeration party with the figures. But this does not make them invalid. I simply cut away all the fluff and the rollouts appear to be as real as the MSO's CM rollouts. Very much in lock-step as one would imagine it should be. Thanks. -MikeM(From Florida) MSO- cable companies CM- cable modem

To: elmatador who wrote (8669)	9/30/2000 2:21:00 PM
From: justone	Respond to of 12823

elmatador: Good points. The unbundling you advocate almost happened, at least in one case to my knowledge. Some of my friends in a small ILEC (recently bought out by a big ILEC) were told they were going to be split into a 'wire' company and a 'service' company. They all asked to be in the wire company, since they knew there would be competition in the service company, and didn't trust themselves (and their management) to compete. I think this will happen- the only thing stopping it is the central office is owned by the wire-company, and right now there is no way around that, until voice over DSL (voip or voatm) is real. Even then, there will be real questions how to fund the wire company.

To: elmatador who wrote (8669)	9/30/2000 3:43:16 PM
From: John Curtis	Respond to of 12823

Is this or no future for DSL. ADSL is being slowly killed. We already have the ISDN of the new milenium. ADSL is not going to happen... Comparing xDSL technology to ISDN is apples and oranges. ISDN (popularly known in the industry as I Still Don't Need it) has been around 20 years, and it's struggled for any number of reasons, not the least of which was arriving long before the need for speed became apparent and/or demanded by the populace and business community. This is not to mention such hardware as PC's, etc., hadn't descended the cost curve sufficiently at the time to make them as ubiquitous as they are now. And by the time this need was apparent it had blown right by the slow poke speed of 56Kb. The only aspect of ISDN I see doing well at all these days is PRI. And this is exclusively a business product. BRI? Based on market share alone I'd say that's already dead. And if not, from what I see going on in the frame world I'd say frame is beginning the process of burying ISDN. As for asking the operator to unbundle the copper pair and lease it dry to a CLEC....well....this is already happening. The CLEC orders the copper pair in situations where they haven't "fired up" the building, area, etc., and does what they will with it (this is based on personal experience). Admittedly it's a slow process, but it is occurring. Just as the LEC's are now swiftly (by their normally glacial standards) rolling out xDSL as well. I think if you revisit your xDSL is dead thoughts some five years from now I'll bet you'll find it as accurate a statement as that 'ol classic IBM CEO 1954 comment wherein he predicted an entire worldwide demand for computers being "only a couple hundred machines" (I paraphrase). ;-) As for splitting the infrastructure from the service/application arm....hmmmm....an interesting idea. And just about as likely to happen as me walking on the moon. I don't see the LEC's doing this, nor the Fed's mandating it.....particularly as bundling products and applications over one "pipe" becomes more and more attractive, with all economic advantages this entails. John~