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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the hube who wrote (32645)	10/1/2000 7:37:01 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

John Huber wrote: I'm sure you've posted it before, but would you mind posting again--name of game, when started, players, relative weighting, and any consolidation that has taken place to date? No, I haven't posted any specific game that included exact starting dates of a mock portfolio including relative weighting or consolidation on this board. I have posted players within specific games such as fabric switching for fibre channel, B2B procurement/trading exchanges as well as some posts at the Fool that cover the core, edge, data storage/transport games and soon to post fiber, optical and what is known as beyond the Layer 1 and 2 switching games. As well, the semiconductor plays for the IP/Broadband technology adoption life cycle has been posted at the Fool by Phileo. However, in all of those instances, I have never set up a 'mock' portfolio using a starting date to track because by the time I personally invested in many of those spaces the most likely candidates had already emerged because the companies and the technology have been around for a few years. I stated that as my reason for only holding Siebel and i2 in 1998 in their respective games and only invested in Brocade last year due to market share and quarterly reports in fabric switching. I'm viewing the NGN space in a similar light within each respective niche. Although I hold more than one candidate in each space, I see enough compelling evidence to 'weed out' some of the lesser candidates in terms of market share at this point. Although I'm always open to that changing if evidence leads to the change. If I post the results of those games as they mature, I will add in the lesser players simply as a point of illustration. They would come from some of the compelling ones that I hold shares: Fabric/Director class FC switches B2B procurement/trading exchanges NGN core routers NGN edge routers NGN GE/Layer 3, 4 NGN Optical Voice over IP (I'm just now researching this one to a greater depth.) I'm looking for a new basket to put together, starting October 2000. If you are looking for a 'new' game to track, it might be worthwhile to investigate the following four companies in EAI as a potential game for real time study: Yantra Viquity Metagon Merant Only one of the 4 has had their IPO and it's early in the game. I'm not suggesting investing at this point, but if you're interested in tracking a brand new game - this one's about as new as it gets in the enterprise. I don't even know when the other three will go to market. If you are more interested in actually investing in a basket starting in the month of October, there are plenty of areas to focus on in technology. BB