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To: LLCF who wrote (23346)9/30/2000 3:44:39 PM
From: Thomas M.  Respond to of 436258
 
from the Barron's mailbag:

Slippery Situation

After reading Cheryl Strauss Einhorn's column (Commodities Corner,
September 25) and observing Secretary of Energy Richardson's verbal tap
dance on Meet the Press, an interesting scenario is raised.

There are some indisputable facts: First, heating-oil stocks are 40% below
last year's at this time. Second, refineries are running in excess of 96%
capacity. Third, heating oil must be available during the coldest part of the
winter -- January-February -- if people aren't to freeze.

President Clinton and his minions are saying that releasing oil from the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve will make light crude available to make up the
heating-oil shortage. But with such high utilization rates, where is the marginal
capacity needed to make up the high heating-oil deficit? Are other distillate
products going to be sacrificed to provide heating-oil refining capacity?

Two of the distillate cousins of heating oil are jet fuel and diesel fuel. Are
there going to be spot jet-fuel shortages grounding flights during the
Thanksgiving-to-Christmas travel season? Are there going to be spot
diesel-fuel shortages, causing shippers to miss deliveries during the Christmas
season?

Stay tuned.

CHARLES BATES
Florence, Arizona