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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (4716)	9/30/2000 5:43:03 PM
From: Dealer	Respond to of 65232

Yea! I know Oct. 2 could be it with no winner.......We'll just have to double the prize for the 10,000 :-)..........dealie &hearts;

To: lurqer who wrote (4716)	9/30/2000 6:21:35 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

On the advice of a friend I listened to Bob Brinker today (first time in a long time). When I heard him begin by discussing the three stages of a market decline, I knew why my friend wanted me to listen. He discussed a denial phase in the spring (and I nodded my head), he discussed an anxiety phase existing now (while I call it fear, close enough, more head bobbing), he then discussed what he saw in the future (and my head stopped moving). He sees a protracted anxiety phase lasting (perhaps, he was not definitive) well into next year. And then the capitulation maybe as late as 2002. Hmmm... well maybe. He "could be right". <gg> This sounds like some of the older bear corrections/recessions that we used to have. While it may play out that way, at this juncture I'd be surprised. Part of the reason those former corrections took so long was business inventory control was more primitive. It takes a while to work off surplus inventory. I don't believe inventory is a big problem this time around. It is true we still have a lot of bullishness (consider talk of Naz 5000) but this is not the capitulation phase. I suspect a retest of the spring lows, another failed rally like we had in the summer, and then another plunge, would go a long way toward wringing out excessive bullishness. And it wouldn't take until 2002. BWDIK ('Course, I don't have a radio program [and don't want one!]) I think I'll go for a walk with my parrot. ,___, (°v°) ( ^ ) ¯¯¯"¯"¯¯¯ the lurqer