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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (25145)	9/30/2000 10:03:26 PM
From: WTSherman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev, I agree with most of your outlook on semi's and semi equip's, though I think you may be a little too positive!! I think that for all equity markets the next 3-6 months are going to be a very paranoid period as everybody sits around looking for signs of a recession(not just a cooling off of an overheated economy). This will keep a lid on just about everything and be a major hammer for anything that shows signs of weakness. If you look at the hits that INTC and APPL took you can see how scared most of the funds are. For semi's the "recession watch" represents a double whammy. The market is very concerned that the natural peak of the semi cycle has been reached and we're already on the downslope, a recession watch on top of this "cycle watch" spells real trouble for semi's. I think that the PC market is clearly moving towards a new lower growth pattern as corporations and individuals come to appreciate that they simply don't need to replace machines every 2-3 years any more. A 600Mhz PIII with a 20 GB HDD and 128MB RAM is more than adequate for whatever most office workers or home users are likely to want to do with it for the forseeable future. Performance upgrades are going to be spaced much further apart(except for servers) than they have been in the past. Add a little paranoia about the economy and the box guys are in real trouble. Semi's in the wireless space are likely to find that the market for wireless devices is already slowing and will slow further as the market becomes saturated. All in all it may be 3 years before we see semi's breaking their old highs...