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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (15223)10/1/2000 1:51:35 AM
From: Craig Freeman  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 60323
 
Zeev, I agree with your logic. Unless the market changes, I will likely be a net seller of tech stocks as the year turns.

Craig

reply to: "Craig, you may be quite right (I hope so) that Monday is a good day to buy SNDK, however, do you have a time scale? Is that a good time to buy for the next three months (meaning very little chance to buy much lower than that over that time span) or is it a very good time to buy over the next 12 months (wery little chance to buy much lower in the next 12 months). If the latter, I beg to disagree, I now believe that SNDK may be availble in the low $40' possibly within the next six months and I have a target bottom of about $28-$32, within the next 12 months. In the very short term, the next three months, I agree with you, we may go from here, once more to the high $80' and possibly even higher. However, IMHO, this may very well be an opportunity to sell rather than buy more.

My reasoning has nothing to do with the spectacular performance that SNDK will probably show both on its top and bottom line over the next four quarters, it has to do with the general market and particularly the high tech sector, which I have been saying for quite some time will become very dangerous over that time span."



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (15223)10/1/2000 8:42:25 AM
From: orkrious  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 60323
 
I now believe that SNDK may be availble in the low $40' possibly within the next six months and I have a target bottom of about $28-$32, within the next 12 months

Zeev, even assuming that your bear market thesis is correct, is it not possible that SNDK will be one of the few hundred stocks that will end next year higher? I suspect that even a recession (which I believe you define as two quarters declining GDP) will not stop the massive migration to digital photography. Even with all of the new capacity coming on line, Eli says he doesn't see capacity catching up with demand for years. Right now SNDK is selling for less than half its growth rate, and the royalties side should hold up well.

Jay



To: Zeev Hed who wrote (15223)10/2/2000 9:19:41 AM
From: limtex  Respond to of 60323
 
Zeev, Yes I remeber SNDK falling to $5 pre-split. But it wasnt during a slump. Other stocks were doing OK aroudn the same time. There was a missed number I seem to recall that triggered most of the decline after the secondary at around $28. There wasa slow drip to $19 or so then a hiccup in the earnings and whack down to $13, a short recovery to around $16 or so and then a long decent to around $5 at the bottom. There was then more than $5 in cash per share!

But the take off hadn't started for SNDK and even in the slump there were companies whose business was growing a huge rates whose stcok was bought and comanded good multiples.

I agree that Mr G is not going to let the market off lightly for making him look wrong over the last few years But now he's going to get payback. He seems to want to crush the lifeblood out of the market and in the process will bring Europe's struggling currency to its knees and the European economy with it under the pressure of inflation.

Unless you anticipate a full blown market crash however its hard to see SNDK dropping to the $50s given that we've got another good qtr to be announced in Jan and it April.

Best,

L

Best,

L