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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clappy who wrote (4724)	10/1/2000 12:58:58 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Hi Clap, Hope you are having a great Sunday. Thanks for your response yesterday. I've thought some more about Brinker's take on the market, but I still don't see capitulation as late as 2002. We'll see. Lately I've been considering a shorter time frame. In the scenario I presented a couple of weeks ago, there was a "runup" toward yearend. My current misgivings wrt that is everybody else seems to have a yearend surge as well. Now I'm not talking about this thread, I mean everybody. Everybody that I read, that I see on CNBC, CNN - even FOX. Well perhaps not everybody. There're a few (very few) fringe-type permabears that don't, but I purposely watched (endured?) a plethora of TV shows yesterday just to check this hypothesis and it was verified. There is an extraordinary consensus about a yearend rally. As I'm sure you know contrarianism works best in the extremes. I'm not ready yet to give up on a yearend rally, just gettin' nervous. I've also spent some time thinking about early October - with less than satisfactory results. For the next two weeks (that end in with a Friday the 13th - ugh!), I considered three possibilities. 1) a rally from here (sentiment indicators like Rydex, VIX etc make this a low probability), 2) a plunge (whether it's the PPT you mentioned or just too much sideline money not wanting to be left out, so far we seem to have difficulty pulling this one off), 3) churn (if its long enough, a "meatgrinder" churn can accomplish a "cleansing" of both the bulls and the bears). I tried to assign probabilities to these three possibilities, but when I considered what I refer to the "probabilities of the probabilities" (i.e. the probability that my assigned probabilities were accurate), I had to toss that approach. There just (for me right now) is no clear (high probability) alternative. Frustrating. But that's the market. So I've decided that some time in the next two weeks to close my short positions. I only have a couple left. Maybe once I'm off the fence, the market will show me how wrong I am. Thanks for lettin' me "think out loud". Think I'll watch some football, less frustrating. As polvie would say, yer fren. lurqer