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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (37639)	10/2/2000 10:40:33 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Excellent read on J Bagley and his thoughts on the cycle(thanks for Don Wennerstrom of the LRCX thread) semi.org!OpenDocument&Highlight=0,lam* Excerpt: If analysts predicting the end of the cycle are correct, "it will be more by luck than database," Bagley commented, arguing that the semiconductor industry is driven by so many different factors now, and it is not completely dependent on cell phones or any specific product. The industry was driven by PC growth in the 1980s and 1990s, and by mainframe computers and the military in earlier years, but that narrowness of demand is not evident now. Bagley estimated the cell-phone market for semiconductors is now worth about $17 billion a year, representing roughly 8 percent of the global semiconductor market. "Seventeen billion dollars is a lot," Bagley said. "But if you look at the scope (of the global semiconductor industry), it's a big market. You don't take 6 to 7 percent and drive the industry." When you add up all forms of communication, including Internet infrastructure, and what Bagley called "information manipulation and information transmission," that would represent about 80 percent of the global semiconductor market, he said.