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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PMG who wrote (33880)	10/1/2000 2:18:04 AM
From: TWICK	Respond to of 50167

Look guys, It's as simple as this.... The 6 rate increases are finally starting to show up in company earnings reports. It's going to get worse before it gets better IMO. We are still in DENIAL. Why on earth should we expect Mr. Greenshades to lower rates, or even change his bias towards inflation. If the republicans have their way, they will give us a tax credit which will boost our confidence, and will further spending, which may force Alan and his cohorts to raise interest rate again. Or, do you guys really believe that as soon as the Fed lowers the rate, that all is going to be OK and happy with earnings. No ! It's going to take some time, which many of us seem to have forgotten to appreciate and respect. We still scream out "buy", "going long" after every minor correction in this down-cycle. God knows I called out my fair share "going long QQQ" on this thread, only to see them turn sour a day, or a few short hours later. We need more blood-letting. We need more capitulation. We need valuations to come back to earth. We need every single speculator and gambler to fold in their cards and go home crying. I see no hope for what I call a "reversal" until the last person accepts denial and moves on to acceptance, and kindly turns off the light. A good gambler knows when it's wiser to fold the cards, rather than let the emotions and greed force costly mistakes. There's always another game, a new deck, a different dealer later. Why not cash in and wait for that luck to turn ? Why not watch and plan a better strategy so when the opportunity arises, you're ready with plenty of cash to take advantage of it ? After counting up my scars these past few months, I've come to the realization that my best option is to sit on my cash and wait for something that really looks like a bottom, or a real reversal that could, with a little luck and some patience, turn into another sustained bull market like we had these past 10 years. I've been trying to figure out what the INDU, SOX, NDX, and S&P will do next week, next month, next year, and I can't. I don't think anyone really can. It's alot easier to guess when you're looking a charts that have clearly bottomed. These charts look like their about to break and fall into a black hole. That's just me coming to the realization that I haven't been a good gambler as of late. Twick