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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Drbob512 who wrote (7143)	10/1/2000 5:03:19 PM
From: idealist1	Respond to of 100058

DrBob, in response to your question, I am building my "long" portfolio around wireless and fiber optics themes (some companies are both), as I think this will be the growth area. My stock preferences are the market leaders. I have positions in: NT- gaining market share by eating Lucent's lunch. Bought at 72 and 61. Great value and growth play. Price target $120 by Salomon SB set on 9/15 and CSFB on 9/13. TXN- market leader in DSP's (digital signal processors). No longer in PC chip market, but focused on wireless. Stock has wrongly fallen in sympathy with semis, but should rebound strongly. Bought at 66 and 57. Price target $105 by Merrill Lynch set on 9/27. JDSU- market leader for optical components and growing like CSCO did by making acquisitions. I hold a position and don't plan to add more. It is becoming a market darling and this may be a bad sign (remember CPQ, AOL). Yet, it has plenty of potential growth ahead. EXDS- market leader in web hosting. Bought core holding at $22, but also do swing trading with additional shares. My favorite long stock-- a keeper. DELL- very low downside risk. Although I am a bit under water now, the PCs should rebound nicely by Christmas. Michael Dell is reinventing the company by finding other more profitable ventures such as web hosting. I plan to sell near the top of the next bull run and stay out of DELL. XOXO- formerly known as Nextlink. This company is the largest holder of the fixed broadband wireless spectrum, with licenses covering 95% of the population in the 30 largest cities. Craig McCaw (Cellular One pioneer) is the man behind this company. Lots of spare cash to build out the system. Share price fell recently in sympathy with the telecoms and broadband, but XOXO then rebounded by appreciating 54% in just six days. Heavy institutional participation. I bought shares at 33 and 30, and am really excited over this company's potential future growth. Target price is $70 by PaineWebber, established on 9/19. AVNX- manufacturer and marketer of photonic processors for optical networks. This is a momentum stock. I bought in the 120's and at 112, so I am underwater with more shares than I should own of any one stock. Yet, if the bull charges in the next 3-5 months, AVNX could retest its old high of $273. Most recent target price was set by Piper Jaffrey on 7/28 for $240. Stock is now trading below $110. SCMR- I hold a position since $125 and $115, and may trade this one. I worry a bit about the small customer base. If their largest customer switches accounts, SCMR would temporarily lose most of its value. Am undecided here about the time frame to hold. STLW- recent IPO on semiconductor side of optics field. Momentum stock, bought 1000 shares in low 30's. Not a long term investment but will hold for a possible 100% gain. Someone has said to watch lockup expiration in December. On 9/8 Piper Jaffray set a $80 price target. Good buying opportunity here, but not without risk. BVSN- bought shares for intermediate term hold, expecting 50+% appreciation from here, and then I will sell off. Am watching CORV, AKAM, AVCI, PHCM (too late?), INTV, and ONIS. JNPR and GLW are hot, but perhaps too overpriced here. Last year I held SUNW, GE, CSCO, EMC, which did very well, but those were sold in favor of higher growth and momentum stocks for this next bull cycle (if and when one appears). I still trade SUNW and CSCO. I believe that growth will slow down in the older stocks and I'm willing to assume the risk for more aggressive growth over the next 5-6 months. I have positioned myself for a possible 50-90% appreciation over the months ahead. On the other hand, I am prepared to lose, just as those holders of AAPL, MSTR, INTC, etc. No risk--no gain. I'm assuming that wireless and optics will be the hot plays. If not, then I am in trouble. My future financial security is not dependent on the portfolio discussed above. You must know your own risk tolerance, and do your own DD. Don't listen to me. idealist