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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: justone who wrote (8697)	10/1/2000 2:46:24 PM
From: axial	Respond to of 12823

Hi, justone; '2) fiber comes down so low it is cheaper to run it to a building than to replace t1 equipment with HDLS' I've been one of those who agree this option will come, and my guess for the timeframe was the same as yours: about five years. The more I look at the matter, the more unlikely it becomes. If I may make an unrelated comparison, it reminds me of the fifteen year-old idea that a vaccine would eliminate AIDS. Yes, it would: but today, we still have no vaccine. There are many related issues that must be resolved, too. What about telephony over fiber: never mind the QOS issues, how do you power the handset? Maybe the best solution is to go wireless over an indoor LAN, and port it to fiber. Then there's the whole mix of switching issues, and IP issues: integration with the larger network. PONs seem like a good, cost-effective idea, but their application to a large, tall building with a lot of high-capacity usage is doubtful, if only because of the aggregate distance and usage in the longest runs. I'm not quarreling with your proposition; I hope you're right. I guess it's just a restatement of the old 'devil is in the details' argument. Maybe we're trying to paint the picture with just one 'brush' when in fact many 'brushes' will be needed. Maybe there is market segmentation here that we're just not addressing. Your point, 'the only application I see needing high bandwidth is point to point video- that might require a tripling of 'voice' capacity. At that point fiber may be needed.' is well taken, but I thought that fiber was also contemplated where just the sheer volume of traffic (ie., brokerages, data storage facilities) was a problem. Is this not the case? Frank, I'm sure, could do this subject justice. Regards, Jim

To: justone who wrote (8697)	10/2/2000 8:37:52 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

"But I suspect that most small businesses don't need more than a single T1 (one pair HDSL2), and if they do grow, they don't need more than 2 T1s (two pairs of HDSL). At that point the question is will their growth be satisfied by two pairs or do you force a move to fiber" justone- I wasn't sure why you thought a telco would be interested in pulling a fiber to customer(along with the resultant, very expensive, CPE and CO optical equipment) when HDSL2 would be the cheapest answer by far. Isn't this going to be the classic case where HDSL2 will play right into.....oh after I re-read you comment you assumme they have a spare copper pair. But from what I understand, copper exhaust is a big problem in access lines. Assumme copper exhaust is a problem -- Then the literal doubling of T1 capacity can be gained by HDSL2. Seems to me it's quite compelling for a telco to roll it out. What do you think? Thanks. -MikeM(From Florida)