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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KM who wrote (31669)	10/1/2000 4:25:55 PM
From: UnBelievable	Respond to of 42787

Carl Icahn Did His Strategy Was To Have Lots of Money to Fund The Drawdowns and Increase The Basis of His Shorts - I understand it worked quite well for him.

To: KM who wrote (31669)	10/1/2000 5:29:05 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 42787

Agree trying to bet against the mania is a losing game. Best you can do is not try to time the top but wait for confirmation. It seems most manias last about a year to 1 1/2 years before popping. I would wait as I suspect it won't break until next spring. April - June has been a good time to bet against the internets, fiber, PCs etc in the past. I also agree that trying to play these despite the knowledge most of them are fluff is playing the house odds which are stacked against you. Premiums on puts are obscene just as they were for the other hype sectors of the past. Shorting a mania stock can lead to beheading as manias always go farther than anyone thinks they can. Most of the fiber stocks have low floats which makes it only worse. Best to wait until everyone gives up trying to short so there is less fuel for a squeeze. If you miss it, oh well. The pop will drag other techs down with it whenever it finally happens so sometimes you can go after cheaper puts in the right time frame and collect on the collateral damage. I actually believe that a few of these fiber stocks are good companies in a fast growing nitch. Unfortunately I also feel the same way about them that I do about other good companies like EMC, SUNW, CSCO etc. They are great companies with a much needed product and will probably enjoy continues growth. The only problem is valuations now are grossly higher than any growth they could ever achieve in our life times. If they market ever did really crash, I would be buying the CSCOs, SUNWs, CIEN, GLWs, QLGCs, PMCSs and EMCs myself but at PEGs closer to .5 since most of the earnings are also vaporware due to investment gains etc. that won't be there in a bust market. Until then, I can wait and scalp itsy bitsies off of them when they are running one way or the other. Good Luck, Lee