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Strategies & Market Trends : Piffer OT - And Other Assorted Nuts -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rich1 who wrote (54590)	10/1/2000 5:54:18 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 63513

Are you asking which one you would buy today or which one would you rather have owned for the past year? I certainly wouldn't buy JNPR today.

To: Rich1 who wrote (54590)	10/1/2000 6:06:33 PM
From: Original Mad Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 63513

That's a real good question, cuts right to the heart of the issue. And I have no quick answer. My slow answer is..... It would depend on whether I had a short term or long term horizon, and whether I was looking for a capital preservation goal or a riskier rapid growth reward. Let me put that in human terms. I help manage money for some friends and relatives from time to time. Let's use my father in law as one example. He recently retired, and has some 401K money to invest. It is not his only source of future security, but it is the largest source. He may live 5 years or 25; nobody knows. So with his account, I would definitely buy CSCO over JNPR ..... CSCO is much likelier to be a dominant force on the landscape in 5 or 25 years, and even if it's not its financial strength will preserve a fairly high percentage of its market cap in down times. For my own retirement account, on the other hand, I would probably choose JNPR, though I might fuss over the entry point. I have 2 or 3 decades of earning power ahead of me. So does Original Wife. If our present investments flame out totally, it will not be good but it will not be disastrous either; we'll just work harder to get what we need, and sacrifice some of what we now believe we want. My father in law can't do that; he has no earning power left. So for him it's CSCO. I will say this. CSCO is not gonna be a five bagger in less than 10 years and probably 20. JNPR, even with the run up it has already seen, could be one in 5 years. But only if it supplants CSCO's present dominance, which is possible but not likely IMO. Great question though .... made me think.